Tuesday, December 13, 2011

NOL

NOL: Barclays notes that operating results for the 4 weeks ended Nov 18 were generally in-line with expectations. But volumes were particularly weak, with the 7% mom decline the 2nd worst in a decade after Nov 08's 9% plunge, while average freight rates were steady mom, but down 14% yoy. Revenue is down 3.1% ytd but in-line with the current 2011 forecast. The house keeps an U/W rating, with an
unchanged price target of $1.06, based on 0.7X FY12.

Its preferred sector picks are the ports, as they benefit from consistent volume growth without the direct impact of the Asia-Europe freight price war. It rates China Merchants Holdings (0144.HK), Cosco Pacific (1199.HK) and Hutchison Port as O/W. Among container shippers, it prefers CSCL (2866.HK) on lower leverage and cheaper valuation at 0.6X P/B.

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