HPH Trust

HPH Trust: Citi looks at Nov operating data at HPHT’s ports.
Notes, with throughput volumes at COSCO-HIT down 17% YoY in Nov, volumes at HIT likely also declined sharply (COSCO-HIT has comprised 19% of total HIT volumes YTD). Assuming a 17% YoY decline at HIT in Nov (which would be the largest YoY decline since Oct ‘09), estimates throughput at the port is now tracking up just 3% YTD.
Notes also, Nov throughput volumes at Yantian declined nearly 4% YoY and remain flattish YTD. Meanwhile, COSCO Pacific’s volumes in Bohai Rim and the Yangtze River Delta, improved 9% and 8% YoY in Nov, respectively.
Says, with roughly 20% of Chinese exports destined for Europe (and another 18% to the US), end-market demand is likely to remain under pressure heading into 2012. Maintains tepid volume growth forecasts for FY12/13 of ~4% as we expect global growth to remain weak and cautions HPHT may continue to cede share to other regional ports.
The house keeps at sell with TP US$0.55.