Noble

Noble: Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight with TP $1.50, believing that current price levels have already discounted >US$300m profit decline and margin levels not seen since the 2008-09 GFC, which is not justified. Two reasons are cited: ( i) demand is steady now and there is little evidence that Noble will repeat the collapse of GFC, when volumes dropped ~25% h/h and margins plunged >50%. ( ii) risk exposure is materially lower now, with VAR and leverage ratios significantly lower and debt maturity profile significantly longer than GFC. Risk-reward is attractive given current valuation of approx. 7x FY15E P/E, almost half of its five-year average of 13x.