Singapore Exports

Singapore Exports: Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) in Sep ‘14 grew for a second month by +0.9% y/y (Aug ‘14: +6.0% y/y; consensus: +2.9% y/y), but was down 1.5% m/m, with the seasonally adjusted measure registering a much steeper drop of -8.8% m/m. On a quarterly basis, NODX growth in 3Q14 rebounded by +1.1% y/y, which was credited to stronger gains in Petrochemicals and Pharmaceuticals. Non-Oil Re-Exports (NORX) was also in the black as it rebounded by +4.2% y/y in Sep ’14, driven by the 10% y/y growth in non-electronic shipments such as structures of ships & boats, nickel and motorcycles. The rebound in NORX at the end of 3Q14 is a positive sign for Singapore’s external demand heading into 4Q 2014. Trade balance implies stronger contribution of external demand to 3Q14 GDP. Imports declined further but at slower pace of -5.1% y/y (Aug ‘14: -8.7% y/y) thanks to higher oil imports (Sep ‘14: $12.5b; Aug ‘14: $10.5b). The smaller decline in imports led to a narrower trade surplus of +$5.5b in Sep ‘14 versus +$6.8b in Aug ‘14. However, trade surplus in 3Q14 jumped 43.8% y/y (2Q14: +0.5% y/y), which suggests a stronger positive impact of net external demand to last quarter’s GDP, in turn hinting at firmer 3Q14 GDP numbers versus the advanced estimate of +2.4% y/y and +1.2% seasonally-adjusted annualized q/q.