HPH Trust

HPH Trust: UBS maintains Neutral with US$0.80 TP. 2012 DPU irrelevant, focusing on 2013, which house estimate at HK$0.44. House do not believe investors will be looking at 2012 DPU, as any gap between the IPO guided HK$0.5124 and FCF will be funded by cash reserves. Forecast 2013E DPU to be HK$0.44, which is 8% below the consensus estimate of HK$0.48. However, even on conservative DPU estimate, the stock is trading at a 7.5% yield. Furthermore, estimate 2014-15 DPU of HK$0.44-0.45. House base assumption is 4% volume growth, flat ASP, an average interest rate of 2.5%, an average debt level of HK$30bn, and an effective tax rate of 13%. Sensitivity analysis suggests: 1) a 2ppt change in volume growth/a 1ppt change in ASP growth would impact DPU by 3%/2%; 2) a 50bp change in the average interest rate/an additional HK$1bn debt at Yantian would impact DPU by 2%/1%; and 3) a 1ppt change in the tax rate would impact DPU by less than 1%. House lower 2012/2013/2014 EPU estimates from HK$0.28/HK$0.28/HK$0.29 to HK$0.26/HK$0.26/HK$0.26, mainly to reflect our more conservative assumptions on interest rates and tax expenses. As a result, lower our DPU estimates from HK$0.47/HK$0.46/HK$0.47 to HK$0.46/HK$0.44/HK$0.44. Expect HK$5.9bn 2013 operating cash flow to support a dividend payout of HK$6.0bn and additional HK$1.2bn capex at Yantian to be funded by new debt.