Friday, November 23, 2012

F&N

F&N: The battle for local property and beverage group F&N continues after Thai whiskey king, Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, extended his offer deadline until Dec 11 without improving on his $8.88 offer price. This would give the TCC Assets/ThaiBev group time to evaluate OUE's offer documents, which are expected between Nov 29 and Dec 6, before he makes his next move. With a combined 35% stake, it appears that the Thais are playing a waiting game to see if minority shareholders throw in their lot with Indon-controlled OUE, which has only garnered the backing of Kirin Beer’s 14.8% stake, before responding with a counter-offer. Market observers think the Thai tycoon is playing a shrewd game of poker. If OUE/Kirin fail to win over shareholders, they will end as the weaker party in F&N and may just give in to the Thais. If more shareholders back the Riadys, then the Thais can raise its offer and probably try to persuade investors that they will keep F&N intact instead of spinning off the F&B arm. But if OUE is forced to raise its bid even higher, the Thais could walk away with enough cash to invest elsewhere. Indeed, the Thai tycoon is reportedly eyeing ING’s insurance business in Thailand, which could cost him $400-500m. Meanwhile, investors can sit back and watch the game being played out. There is no hurry to show hand at this point in time. As it is, the current share price of $9.40 is well above TCC’s $8.88 and OUE’s $9.08 offer prices.

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