Genting S’pore

Genting S’pore: Deutsche expects Resorts World Sentosa to show a similar weak trend as rival Marina Bay Sands. MBS was hit by a "triple whammy" of lower volume, lower hold and higher provisions, showing mass-gaming market decline for the first time. The house expects GENS' 3Q12 results, due 12 Nov 12, to show flat revenue with lower ebitda qoq, with VIP rolling volume flat qoq but down 17% yoy, while mass revenue is likely to be marginally higher qoq, with RWS likely gaining slots market share. It forecasts 3Q12 ebitda of $280-290m on $700m revenue. S’pore gaming market may have contracted by ~20% yoy (VIP down 37%; mass down 2%) or 6% qoq to ~$1.6b from $1.72b in 2Q12. Market-share by gross-gaming revenue may have shifted towards RWS, given MBS' poor VIP hold with MBS was at 53% and RWS at 47%. It gives GENS a Hold rating with $1.21 target vs consensus $1.43.