Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Keppel Corp

Keppel Corp: secured a contract for its high-specification KFELS B Class rig from new customer, Safin Gulf worth US$199m. The pricing of the rig is slightly higher than the last rig order secured by KEP in Aug at US$195m and is probably reflective of the faster delivery and variations.
The rig will be delivered in 3Q12, and the relatively short delivery time (the norm is abt 2yrs) is because the rig will be a refurbishment and upgrade of a KFELS B Class jack-up rig that KEP purchased earlier this year.

This brings ytd orders to $8.3b, a record year for KEP. Despite the strong orderbook visibility, KEP share price has suffered an almost 40% pullback since the peak in May ’11.
It turns out that quarterly order wins may be a better indication of share price trends instead. The poor economic outlook, drying up of new rig orders and recent rig option expiries do not bode well for KEP’s orderbook going forward.
Although, the Street still has mainly Buy calls, many analysts have since lowered their earnings and TP forecasts. Street TP now ranges btwn $9.60 – 13.90.

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