Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Ocean Sky

Ocean Sky: Some simple valuations to consider. Counter is in the midst of an RTO, with Developer Chiwayland. Note that the simple calculations below has its limitations and assumes that FY12 and FY13 performance hurdles are met, and also does not take into account a potential divestment of current assets within Ocean Sky. Calculations also uses an RNAV basis, which was given by the Co. in its announcement. #Ocean Sky: Simple valuation via new shares: 1) Current share base after placement at 448.495mil shares 2) Ocean Sky acquires (RTO) Chiwayland via RTO at $310mil (925.373 mil shares at $0.335/share) 3) If FY12 Criteria met, 92.5mil new shares issued at issue price ($0.335) = $31mil 4) If FY13 Criteria met, 92.5mil new shares issued at issue price ($0.335) = $31 mil 5) Arranger gets 37.5mil new shares Potential valuation: New share base: 448.495m + 925.373m + 92.5m + 92.5m + 37.5m = 1596.36 Mkt Cap: (448mil * 0.143) + (1110.37 * 0.335) = 436.2 mil Value per Share = $436 mil / 1596.36 mil shares = $0.273 value / share #Ocean Sky: Valuation via RTO’s NAV: Preferred Scenario 1) Current share base after placement at 448.495mil shares 2) Ocean Sky acquires (RTO) Chiwayland via RTO at $310mil (925.373 mil shares at $0.335/share) 3) Chiwayland has estimated indicative realisable NAV of between approximately RMB3.3b ($652.5m) to RMB3.5b ($692.1m) 4) Ocean Sky Current Mkt Cap / Nav at $64.1m/$91.5m respectively. 5) If FY12 Criteria met, 92.5mil new shares issued at issue price ($0.335) = $31mil 6) If FY13 Criteria met, 92.5mil new shares issued at issue price ($0.335) = $31mil 7) Arranger gets 37.5mil new shares Potential valuation: New share base: 448.495m + 925.373m + 92.5m + 92.5m + 37.5m = 1596.36 Combined NAV (Assume low end) = 652.2 mil + 64.13 mil = 716.3 mil Value per Share = $716.2 mil / 1596.3 mil shares = $0.45 value / share

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