Monday, April 30, 2012
NOL: OCBC upgrades to Buy with $1.38 TP. House note that the Shanghai (Export) Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) climbed 4% WoW in the week ended 27 Apr 2012. Shanghai to Europe freight rates gained 11% WoW, while Shanghai to Mediterranean rose 13% WoW, ahead of major shipping liners’ announced general rate increase in Asia- Europe freight rates on 1 May 2012. Add that NOL share price has fallen 17% from its recent high of $1.45/share on 3 Apr 2012 but the correction does not seem warranted. The SCFI is currently 43% higher than this time last year and shipping liners, including NOL, are profitable at current freight rates. Although there are concerns over increasing container shipping capacity, shipping liners seem to have learnt their lesson and are now using slow steaming to manage shipping capacity and refraining from price wars.