Tuesday, August 2, 2011

SIA

SIA: Broker ratings are as per follow.

CS Maintain N, TP $14.40, results briefing – not much to cheer about, think SIA could see yield improvement sequentially, but do not expect significantly higher fuel hedging gains in 2H. SIA has its lowered passenger capacity growth guidance from 6% to 5%. Cargo capacity is expected to grow faster by 8% but SIA has more flexibility to cut this quickly. SIA at 1.2x forward P/B and 4.7x EV/EBITDAR, below long-term avg of 1.3x and 7.1x. Fairly valued on FY12-13E RoAE of 5–9% (vs historical avg of 9%).

SIA by Citi maintain Sell with TP $12.00 from $13.90. Cut FY12 forecast to $560m, assuming soft passenger yields, jet fuel to remain close to US $130/bbl. Rev outlook weak, with flat forward bookings, economic uncertainties in US and Europe; a strong SGD is another factor that impacts yields.

SIA by MS: Downgrade to E/w from O/w, TP $13.60 from $18.00, Grp facing negative
headwinds, no near term catalysts. risk-reward is evenly balanced post SIA’s August 2 ex-dividend price adjustment. E/W on SIA, still favor SIA over Cathay Pacific, EVA, and China Airlines, all of which are rated UW.

SIA by UBS: Downgrade to N from Buy, TP $13.00 from $16.00. Note that developed markets exposure a key weakness Worst should be behind but recovery will likely be slow cut FY12/13/14E EPS by 28%/16%/16%. Fut sustainable ROE assumption from 9% to 8% to reflect the lower EPS forecasts, target P/B multiple to fall from 1.4x to 1.1x.
see no near-term catalyst, prefer higher-beta Cathay Pacific to SIA in case of a sector recovery.

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