SIA

SIA: May operating data.
Pax traffic +4% yoy in May, but was outpaced by capacity +6% yoy. This translated to May load factor of 73.6%, down from 74.6% in Apr, and below Mar-qtr breakeven of 75.2%, implying 2 mths of operating loss.
Cargo +0.6% yoy in May (slowing from Apr’s +11.8% and Mar’s +0.9%), while capacity +4.3% yoy. Load factor -1.9ppt yoy to 64.7%...

Citi says the May data gives further conviction that its FYMar12 profit forecast of $750m (39% below consensus of $1.22b) may materialize. Notes the higher avg spot jet fuel this quarter at US$132.55/bbl (Mar-qtr US$121.16) adds ~US$100m in additional jet fuel cost, and unless there is a sharp pick-up in Jun traffic and loads, Jun-qtr profit could be even lower qoq, signaling further downside risk...

While Citi concedes the $0.80/sh special div (XD Aug 2) could serve to support the share price, house keeps Sell rating with $13.90 TP.