Thursday, June 23, 2011

Yanlord

Yanlord: Company-specific factors appear strong, with co pushing new projects and phases out in 2Q2011. Both Yanlord Yangtze Riverbay in Nanjing and Yanlord Lakeview Bay in Suzhou will have new phases launched which will drive co’s rev. A smaller villa dev Suzhou Wuzhong will also be launched. Co has sizeable existing land bank in China, total of 5.1m sqm (compared to 185.1k sqm delivered in 1Q2011 where co has stellar results)…

Net debt to equity at 0.55x appears manageable. The problem is on the macro front where China has implemented tightening property measures (raising rates and curbing home-buying in Shanghai and Shenzhen where Yanlord has holdings) coupled with S-chip and US-listed co which had a slew of accounting/fraud issues. The Shanghai SE Property Index has fell off April highs and Yanlord has followed suit…

Given counter’s current weakness, downtrend looks to continue. Co now trades at 0.9x P/B but has delivered superior margins due to land acquisition costs. The advantage may not be sustainable due to higher prices for newer plots of land. See nxt support at $0.95 levels.

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