Gold

Gold: Gold price languished from a three-month high, falling 0.2% to US$1,316 per ounce, as investors eye the release of the Fed minutes for its 17-18th Jun ’14 meeting, scheduled to be out on 9th Jul ’14. Analysts are guiding for gold prices to trade relatively flat until more guidance is given by the Fed in regards to a potential rate increase. Meanwhile Bloomberg reports that investment bank Morgan Stanley is forecasting gold to decline over an average basis for the next five quarters, with prices expected to average US$1,264 in 2014 and US$1,180 in 2015. Separately, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed that the net-long position in Gold rose 20% to 136,929 in the week to 1st Jul ‘14, nearly up four times since the beginning of the year. Overall, we note that Bloomberg consensus forecasts a median gold price of US$1,240 in 4Q14, implying a 5.8% decline from current levels. SGX counters with significant exposure to gold include miners such as CNMC Goldmine and LionGold, and the pawnbrokers ValueMax, MoneyMax and Maxi-Cash.