NOL

NOL: NOL reporting 2013 results on 20 Feb, with Bloomberg consensus expecting adjusted net loss of US$143m, mainly caused by weak freight rates. For 2014, there is a chance of more than 10% supply growth for both Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes. This means that overcapacity is set to persist and a sustainable rate recovery appears difficult to achieve despite DB's view of a global economic recovery. However, once rates move to profitable levels, history suggest that carriers could easily lose their supply discipline. For NOL, Bloomberg consensus has a US$82m profit for 2014. DB maintains HOLD rating with $1.00 TP.