Monday, July 29, 2013
HPH Trust: Group reports its 2Q13 profits after market close on 30 July, CS expect pre-ex NPAT of HK$390m, down 34% y/y and 6% below consensus of HK$416m. Earnings typically build in 2Q towards the 3Q summer peak; however, the impact of the dockworkers strike, slower PRC export volumes and changes in shipping patterns are expected to have combined negatively with the pernicious effect of higher wages to keep NPAT at around 1Q13's levels. Key focus will be on distributions and the read-through to full-year from the company's recommendation for 1H13. Assuming that capex is split as it was last year, CS expect a distribution of HK$0.18/unit to be consistent with a full-year payout of HK$0.41. HPH Trust remains modestly above CS' TP of US$0.72, based on a target yield of 7.5% that is comparable to other SGX-listed business trusts with similar risk profiles. CS has an UNDERPERFORM rating.