Tuesday, August 21, 2012

NOL

NOL: Non-material news, co appointed a former PWC partner to the board's audit and risk mgmt committee. As a whole, the shipping and shipbuilding sector is in the red today. JES -1.3%, YZJ -1.9%. NOL is still trying to stem losses as from their recent 2Q results. NOL: Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, citing more downside risks to freight rates, and the market placing too much faith in carriers' ability to hold down supply as cracks are appearing on supply discipline. House notes 2013 supply growth is expected to accelerate, with the high portion of large container ships for 2013 delivery a concern as they are headed primarily for the Asia-Europe route, where demand is weakening. It now expects a 2012 loss of US$226m from a US$34m profit previously and lowers its 2013 net profit forecast to US$55m from US$88m but raises its 2014 net profit forecast by 58% to US$328m as new vessels will lower the cost base. Macquarie cuts its target to $0.95, based on 0.8x FY12 P/B, from $1.08. However, it reckons investors should revisit NOL in 2H13 if there are evidence of NOL's success in cutting costs and on an improved supply-demand balance in 2014.

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