NOL

NOL: Nomura says, logistics is "the bright star" at NOL . Expects the logistics business to remain profitable in 2012, while estimating NOL will report a US$20 m operating loss due to the container-shipping segment; values the logistics business at US$0.35/sh, equivalent to 36% of NOL's estimated fair value. Expects the container-shipping sector is likely to return to profitability in 3Q12, on capacity discipline and cooperation on freight-rate increases, rather than industry fundamentals. Raises TP to $1.20 from $1.00 on a smaller container-shipping loss and increased value for the logistics business. But Nomura says, the key question remains - will container lines remain disciplined once profitable? Believes that discipline could weaken again especially as we see signs of increasing pricing competition and declining global idle capacity. Estimates quarterly container freight rates will peak in 3Q12 and decline in 2013. The house keeps a Reduce call. The stock is down 0.8% at $1.265.