Genting SP: HSBC has results preview. House forecast RWS operations will generate $375m in EBITDA, flat with 3Q11 EBITDA of $375m. The 3Q11 result was assisted by a high win rate on VIP, which came in at 3.2% vs theoretical of 2.85%, although this was also impaired by higher provisions for bad debts.
Add that even if GENS’s 4Q is weaker than forecast, don’t believe this necessarily undermines investment thesis on GENS or 2012 forecasts. The 3Q and 4Q periods in 2011 were marked by significant global economic uncertainty, which caused many Asian casinos, including Genting, to become more cautious in granting credit to VIP players.
Believe the 2012 period provides a more certain regional economic outlook and, as such, an improved environment to issue new credit lines to VIP players. Overall, house reiterate Overweight rating with $1.99 TP and continue to apply a 10% premium to SOTP valuation. Globally, govts are facing fiscal pressure, and casinos remain an efficient policy tool for raising taxation rev.
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