Genting HK: UOB Kay Hian maintains Buy with $0.33 TP. House expect a strong 2H11 and expect GENHK to deliver a 58% growth in 2H11 net profit to meet house full-yr forecast of US$148m on the back a strong 77.2% yoy growth in 9M11 at RWM.
RWM on track to double EBITDA to US$189.8m in 2011 as gross gaming rev doubled to US$2m/day. VIP gamers reacted positively to organised tournaments and events (60% of GGR), although mass-mkt segment continues to grow impressively with estimated daily traffic rising to the high 20,000s by 3Q11 (1Q11: <15,000). Meanwhile, Star Cruises is on course to deliver US$125.1m EBITDA in 2011, driven by a 32% growth in gaming revenues and a successful ship swap program.
Overall, house note that grp continues to be the most conservative in the broking community. And strong earnings momentum could allow GENHK to overshoot house TP before easing again on concerns of looming competition.