Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Macro

Macro: the IMF says the global economy is much weaker than believed just months ago, and growth will pick up only slightly next year. Lowers its growth forecasts for the global economy to 4.0% for 2011 and 2012, as activity had "weakened significantly," and warned of a return to recession if Western leaders fail to get their economies back on track.
Forecasts China to continue to lead the world's growth but at a modestly slower pace (9.0% next year), while India was projected at a 7.5% rate, though growth downgrades were nearly universal, from Russia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa to the MENA.
Adds, “markets have clearly become more sceptical about the ability of many countries to stabilize their public debt."

Warns the US economy could remain weak for years to come, describing a recovery stalled amid unrelenting headwinds and in dire need of a push from govt.
Cuts US growth forecasts for this year by a full % pt to a paltry 1.5%, a slower rate than projected for the crisis-wracked eurozone. Adds, "growth will be modest relative to historical averages for years to come”, citing crushed US consumer confidence and battered business sentiment -- as well as ongoing crises in the housing and financial markets.

Also warns of the dangers of inflation in much of Asia, where some central banks are having to tighten monetary policy or hinting at rate rises to come. Sees a modest slowdown in China, and for Japan to contract this year but bounce back in 2012 as reconstruction from its Mar ‘11 disasters begins to trickle through and sentiment picks up.
"Growth is expected to remain strong, with weaker external demand offset by still-solid domestic demand.
Forecasts Singapore to grow 5.3% this year and 4.3% next year, down sharply from its rapid-fire 14.5% in 2010.

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