Noble

Noble: Nomura estimates that Noble's agribusiness equity could be worth above US$1.5b, while the market currently factors in agri equity value of only about US$600-800m. Based on its estimates, Nomura lifts TP for Noble to $1.30, building in possible monetisation of the segment. Nomura would not be surprised if COFCO plays a part in Noble Agri’s future, since CIC owns 14% of Noble. House notes that COFCO has just picked up a 51% stake in Dutch Agri trading house Nidera and a Noble Agri stake would strengthen its sourcing network in the Americas and supply centres for grains, oilseeds, etc. The Agri division has gone from being the key focus (accounting for 40% of operating income in FY10) to loss-making — primarily driven by sugar, cotton and grains. However, with sugar prices at a cyclical bottom and utilisations on the up, Nomura believes the division could be a key catalyst over the next two years.