Noble Grp

Noble Grp: 1Q12 results out 10May. Cite note that Noble had posted a quarter of recovery in 4Q11 (post a very difficult 3Q11) and investors will look towards Noble further sustaining this recovery trend in 1Q12. Since FY07, first qtr for Noble typically accounts for 17% - 29% of full year net profit (ex FY11, where first quarter ended up as 47% of full yr net profit). The key metric investors will focus on though will likely be Noble’s gross margin per ton trend, which had registered a small recovery in 4Q11. For 4Q11, Noble’s group gross margin per ton rose to US$5.5/t. (US$4.1/t in Q311, US$9.2/t in Q211, US$9.1/t Q111)) and within the range of US$5.8-4.5 which it had posted during the GFC crisis period in 4Q08-1Q09. House expect Noble to see gross margin per ton trend recover back to US$9 per ton in FY12 (vs US$7 in FY11).