NOL

NOL: Reported weak Sept Operating data. Citi note that for the first time since 2000, vol and rates both fell in September – Period 9 (27-Aug to 23-Sep) vol and rates were down 2.5% and 2.3% mom respectively, the first time since 2000 that both metrics declined together in the month of Sept. The deterioration of peak season shipping vol and rates is happening earlier and faster than house expected, and is not only reflected in NOL’s data but also in Sept port vol and CCFI trends.

Throughput growth at major foreign trade ports in China also slowed to 7% in 3Q11 from 21% in 3Q10, consistent with the slowdown in trade between China and US/Europe. House maintain Sell with $1.00 TP; and cautions that it is too early to bottom fish. Expect 3Q11 results at US$50m net loss, slightly lower than 2Q11 net loss of US$57m. NOL reports 3Q11 results on 31-Oct-2011. Similarly Goldman Sachs maintainl Neutral with $1.00 TP.