Genting SP: Citi upgrades to Buy from Hold, keeps TP $2.30. After results from rival MBS, the house suspects Marina Bay Sands has again taken mass market share from Resorts World Sentosa, and has also likely won back some VIP share as well; but believes the possible market share loss to MBS has been largely priced in. Says the worst is now behind Genting SP. Expects to see solid EBITDA improvement from 2Q11 onwards.
Assuming a normalized hold rate, Citi expects Genting to generate 2Q revenue of $727m (-20% on quarter) and EBITDA of $373m (-30% on quarter); points out that the $538m EBITDA generated in 1Q was largely due to an estimated 3.8% VIP hold rate.
House raises its Singapore gaming market size forecast to US$5.9b from US$5.4b, and is now forecasting a 50/50 split in market share by 2012.
GENS stock is down 0.5% at $1.91.
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