SIA

SIA: released Mar operating data.
Pax air traffic (RPK) -3.6% yoy, which coupled with +6.4% yoy increase in capacity, resulted in pax load factor declining by 7.6ppt yoy to 73.2%. For the qtr ending Mar, pax load factor was 75.5% (vs Dec qtr breakeven 71.1%).
For cargo, traffic (FTK) +0.9% yoy, while capacity expanded by 6.9% yoy. Cargo load factor fell by 3.9ppt yoy to 64.5%.
Separately, wef 21 Apr, fuel surcharges of btwn US$4 -32 per sector will be levied.

Citi says the fall in Mar pax traffic (partly due to shift in timing of Easter, and Japan earthquake) may imply downside risk to 4QFYMar11 forecasts. Adds SIA’s decision to implement a 4th round of fuel surcharges since Dec suggests this may be a further dent to earnings (every US$1/bbl change impacts earnings by ~2.2%). Stock trades at 1.2x trailing P/B. Still, house keeps Buy call and $16 target.