Friday, March 11, 2011

Japan: analyst comments on disaster.

Japan: Key analyst comments on disaster.

Key points
- Quake triggers tsunami up to 10 metres, sweep across farmland, homes, crops, vehicles,
- Several people buried in landslide. Six person reported killed.
- Power cut to 4m homes in and around Tokyo
- Many sections of Tohoku expressway serving northern Jap damaged.
- Major fire at Chiba refinery near Tokyo.
- Bullet trains to the north of the country stopped
- Tokyo's Narita airport closed, flights halted, passengers evacuated.
- Tokyo underground, suburban trains halted.
- Central bank vows to do utmost to ensure financial market stability

Mizuho Research note disaster will certainly lead the govt to compile an emergency budget and Jap govt would have to sell more bonds. Given where BOJ benchmark interest rate is now, they can't lower rates. BOJ will focus on providing liquidity, possibly by expanding market operations. There are car and semiconductor factories in northern Jap, so expect economic impact due to damaged factories. Expect consumption to fall and could temporarily pull down GDP.

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