Tuesday, February 1, 2011

NOL

NOL: Container shipper's latest operating data show another sequential decline in freight rates. Grp note that for seven weeks from Nov13-Dec31 (period 12), its average revenue/forty foot equivalent unit was US$2,647, +21% on-year but -5.4% from period 11 (October 16-November 12) when rates were US$2,797/FEU…..

Deutsche who has a sell call and $1.61 TP, note that ‘freight rates have resumed their downtrend after the carrier failed to hold up rate hikes imposed earlier this mth, and while house expect container activities to pick up starting in 2Q11, the peak newbuild deliveries in 2Q will continue to put pressure on rates…

Add that valuations at 1.3X P/B "looks stretched vs declining ROEs," and that stock has given back almost all of it's YTD gains, and last closed down 1.8% at $2.20, off 8.3% from its Jan peak of $2.40. Tips support at $2.16, YTD low, and $2.12, its 2-mth low….

Macquarie has Hold Call with $2.25 TP, while Morgan Stanley is OverWeight on stock

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