Singapore Economy

Economy: Singapore CPI in Jan rose 3.6% yoy, at a slower-than-expected annual pace, as food, clothing and recreation prices showed only small increases from a year earlier. Consensus estimated a 3.9% rise. Core inflation, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, slowed to 1.2% from 1.9% in Dec. The cost of transportation, which has an index weighting of 16%, gained 8.5% in Jan from a year earlier because of sharply higher COE for private vehicle ownership. Housing costs, which make up 25% of the index, climbed 4.4%, but that was a slower pace than Dec 's 6.7% on-year rise. That was mainly due to base effects as the Dec figure was influenced by a govt housing rebate program the previous year. Food prices, which have a 22% weighting in the index, rose only 1.0% from a year earlier because of a high base effect from a seasonal rise in food prices in Jan 2012 due to the Chinese New Year.

Thai Bev

Thai Bev: trending up over the course of this session. Recall, Thai Bev has two key catalysts that could see the shares re-rated. i) Potential asset swap involving F&N's F&B unit in exchange for the 29% stake in FNN that Thai Bev holds, allowing Thai Bev to emerge as an Asean F&B mammoth. Expect synergies and cost savings, given the deeper and extended geographical penetration and broader product portfolio. ii) Thai Bev has a possibility of replacing FNN as an STI component stock, as early as Sep '13. Given that Thai Bev currently has no meaningful institutional shareholder representation, it bodes positively for stock demand if there is a subsequent rush by "benchmark-focused" funds to acquire exposure

Great Eastern

Great Eastern: shares have rallied close to a 5 yr high, having enjoyed record profits in 2012 of $1.2b ($768m ex-exceptionals), lifted by benign credit markets (non-par profits up >200% yoy) and hefty invmt gains of $562m. Citi forecasts 2013 profits to fall to $500m as such items normalize in 2013. At the operating level, the house sees near term challenges to premium growth from intense competition in Msia while new regulations in Spore may impact agency force sales. The house downgrades to Neutral from Buy, post the share price rally, but raises TP to $17.90 from $16.82. The stock’s $0.54/sh final + special div remains cum-dividend until 22 Apr (ie. ex-div on 23 Apr).

Boustead

Boustead: Phillip initiates at Buy with TP $1.80, which translates to 13.4x P/E and 3.9% yield. Notes growth will be supported by the group's Geospatial earnings (contributes > 30% of pretax profit) at 12-13% CAGR, under impressive economic moat conditions. Meanwhile, the group's Industrial Portfolio will expand by 35% to 102k sm, boosting recurring rental income from $13.5m to an est $18m.

Fragrance Group (technical)

Fragrance Group: Trading Central has a positive bias, expects a short term rebound towards $0.285. Note that the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50, MACD is negative and above its signal line. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the stock is trading under both its 20 and 50 day MA.

NOL

NOL: DBSV maintains Buy with $1.45 TP. HOuse note that losses in 4Q12 for NOL were higher than expected, but current freight rates have rebounded from 4Q12 lows. Think that the worst is over. After the slide in rates for much of 2H12, liners were able to push through spot rate increases on the mainlanes in late-2012/ early 2013, which means that liners started FY13 on a much better footing than in FY12. Spot Asia-Europe and Asia-US rates are currently about 30% and 20% higher compared to early December 2012. Liners are advocating further rate hikes in March-April. FY13F earnings are likely to benefit from lower cost base and better industry discipline.

Aussino

Aussino: Ayeyarwady Bank is amongst the 4 Myanmar banks that US entities are now allowed to work with (see posting directly above). Ayeyarwady Bank website states U Zaw Zaw as the founder, majority shareholder and Executive Chairman. This could offer a first hint that the US may eventually move to a more accommodating stance, and remove Zaw Zaw from its blacklist of individuals under targeted sanctions. If so, this would greatly accelerate the $70m reverse takeover (RTO) process at Aussino, which is currently scrutinized by Singapore regulators. Recall, Zaw Zaw has plans to inject a chain of petrol kiosks under his Max Myanmar group, into Aussino. The stock is +1.9% at $0.265.