Tuesday, January 5, 2016

ComfortDelGro

ComfortDelGro: Following the announcement on 29 Dec where SBS Transit, a 75%-owned subsidiary of ComfortDelGro, will sell 50 new buses to LTA and the novation of procurement contracts for purchase of new buses to be delivered in FY16 and FY17, OCBC believes this gives a clearer signal that LTA may be willing to pay for the rest of ComfortDelGro’s buses at net book value of $800m.

As part of the plan to shift to the new bus government contracting model by 2H16, house believes there are two likely ways the divestment of ComfortDelGro’s buses to LTA could be structured – either LTA pays a lump sum in cash to ComfortDelGro for its assets, or structure the transaction as a finance lease which means progressive payments by LTA.

Factoring in these assumptions, OCBC's TP increases from $2.99 to $3.40. The house upgrades the counter from Hold to Buy rating.

SG Market (05 Jan 15)

Singapore market: Selling momentum in Singapore will likely continue, in line with the ongoing global risk off sentiment, fuelled by growth concerns in China and US, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions between Middle Eastern powerhouses, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Regional bourses opened generally lower in Japan (-0.4%), Korea (+0.5%) and Australia (-1.1%).

From a chart perspective, the STI has broken below its 20-dma at 2,860 and is likely to continue its downdraft towards the next support level at 2,810.

Stocks to watch
*Tigerair: SIA has revised the offer price for the takeover offer of Tigerair upwards from $0.41 to $0.45. Closing date for the revised final offer is extended to 22 Jan.

*ST Engineering: Marine arm secured new orders worth $344m for its ship repair and engineering business in 4Q15. The contracts cover major upgrades, conversion, maintenance, and repair of naval and commercial vessels, which will be delivered progressively over the next 2-6 years.

*GLP: Leased a total of 87,000 sqm in China to three clients, of which two in particular is JD.com and Best Logistics, both of whom are GLP’s largest customers in China.

*Midas: 32.5% owned Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport secured a metro train contract for China's Guiyang Rail Transit Line 1 worth Rmb1.28b. Delivery is scheduled between 2016 and 2017.

*Yoma: Secured lease extension for its landmark hotel project in Myanmar until 2048. It plans to redevelop and restore the 1880s heritage building into a mixed development consisting a hotel, luxury residences and commercial developments is still intact.

*Li Heng Chemical Fibre Tech: Received a voluntary unconditional general offer from Precious Joy to acquire the company at $1/share. Precious Joy does not intend to keep the company listed if it receives more than 90% valid acceptances.

*Ley Choon: Awarded a $7m contract from PUB for watermain repairs and other contract work up to 2017.

*Advanced Integrated Manufacturing: Acquired a minimart in Woodlands for $0.3m.

*Singapore Medical: Disclosed that the company is in early talks on possible transaction.

*Jason Holdings: Ceased proposed acquisitions of Chinese wood-plastic composite manufacturer Top Creation Investment (HK) and the remaining 40% stake in tile distributor White Cubic, after conditions precedent have not been fulfilled.

*RH Petrogas: Assumes rights to operate Kepala Burung PSC from PetroChina in Indonesia. The PSC currently produces ~3,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to the group's working interest.

*Far East Hospitality Trust: Transferred 625,000 stapled securities to Golden Development, a unit of the Far East Group, at $0.6307/unit (3.7% discount to last close).

*Albedo: Proposed placement of 100m new shares (3.8% share capital) at 1¢ apiece to Toh Ee Han, director of an investment management and advisory firm. Estimated net proceeds of $1m will be used mainly for growth and expansion plans (70%), with the balance for working capital.

*Soo Kee: Discharged as a corporate guarantor for credit facilities granted to Bedok Land Sdn Bhd.

*Cacola: Warns of potential delisting. Also announced its CEO has resigned for retirement.

*KLW: Suspends shares after failing to find replacement sponsor for SAC Capital. KLW disclosed that incoming sponsor has not completed its due diligence and board will announce the appointment in due course. KLW could get delisted if new continuing sponsor is not found by 31 Mar 2016.

Monday, January 4, 2016

Strategy

Strategy: UOBKH sees the STI being range bound in 1H16. Valuations are inexpensive but the 18% and 30% discounts to long-term mean PE and P/B valuations respectively look appropriate, given the mixed outlook and structurally weaker domestic growth prospects. The house sees end-16 target of 3,240 for the FSSTI.
The house also sees that any earnings recovery is more likely in 2H, near-term headwinds persist. It forecast 2016 market EPS growth of 8.2% yoy, but see potential downside. Consensus forecasts continue to trend down with a 5.4% EPS growth (-1.8ppt) after a lacklustre 3Q15 reporting season.

The house advocates buying on pullbacks when the VIX rises, as volatility remains elevated. Investors should also remain defensive.

UOBKH has the following picks. Large-cap BUYs include Ascott REIT, City Developments, DBS, First Resources, Raffles Medical, SATS, Singapore Post and SingTel. Mid-cap picks include Jumbo, Singapore O&G, Triyards and Wing Tai. SELL Nam Cheong, Sembcorp Marine and SIA Engineering.

Strategy

Strategy: A key theme affecting the Singapore market going into 2016 would be the impact of US rate-hikes on the USD/SGD.

The Fed had lifted rates in Dec, and is signalling for four more in 2016. This may weaken the SGD further against the USD, which Maybank-KE estimates to be at $1.47/USD by 4Q16.

As the street sees a similar forecast, there is a possibility of a surprise if the Fed becomes more hawkish.

With the rate hike, the unwinding effects from seven years of easy monetary policy would result in an outflow of capital in low-yielding asset classes such as bonds and real estate. It may also result in a spiral in headwinds on the Singapore economy.

Historically, Singapore stocks have an uneasy relationship with USD strength. Over the last 20 years, the inverse relationship has been tight. During previous bouts of USD strength in the magnitude of 9-25% - Asian financial crisis, dot-com bust, global financial crisis and eurozone crisis - the STI gave up 29-55%.

On average, a 1% appreciation of the USD is accompanied by a -2.9% move for the STI. In this cycle, both have moved in greater lockstep: USD has appreciated 14% against the SGD while STI has fallen 14%.

Meanwhile, Maybank-KE opines that Budget 2016 should be supportive of companies, especially since it will be Mr Heng Swee Kiat’s first Budget as Finance Minister.

Under the house coverage, stocks that stand to benefit from a rising USD include Venture, Innovalues, ST Engineering, SIAEC, Riverstone, and UG Healthcare. Meanwhile, retail REITs could be hurt as regional currency depreciation would affect demand. Consumer stocks with regional operations could also fall victim to translational losses.

The only sector Maybank-KE could emerge as a winner on all fronts is manufacturing. In this space, Venture (Buy, TP $10.70) is Maybank-KE’s top pick. Its revenue is entirely in USD and the group has no USD Debt.

Another manufacturer that would benefit from the USD strength is Innovalues (Buy, TP $1.02). The group has a revenue exposure of 90-100%, while most of its operating costs are in countries with depreciating currencies against the USD. USD-denominated debt for Innovalues is also minimal.

In addition, Innovalues adopts a forex-volatility-sharing revenue formula, whereby for every 3% change in USD against SGD, half of the delta will be shared with its customers. While this reduces its gain, or pain, in both directions, Innovalues emerges a net winner of the USD strength.

However as a double edged sword of the USD strength, Maybank-KE notes that this could weaken sales for American customers, as products are less competitive globally.

Jumbo

Jumbo: Maybank-KE initiates coverage on Jumbo with a Buy rating and TP of $0.58.

Jumbo’s highly-profitable seafood restaurants and signature crab dishes are much loved in Singapore, and now, being successfully exported to China where it has three outlets.

With its far bigger market potential and high ROI, there is room to add one new outlet in China a year as new outlets fully recoup investments in just 1-3 years.

Jumbo’s expansion in China is just beginning. The mainland Chinese have taken to chilli crabs in droves, and Maybank-KE thinks this expansion will provide years of double-digit growth to come.

Maybank-KE projects accelerating earnings growth of 9%/11%/20% in FY16E-18E, driving China from a 10% market now to 32% of revenue by FY18E. The house estimates that China outlets are capable of generating ROI of 32-86% with relatively short payback period of 1-3 years which reduces risk.

Jumbo has demonstrated that it can successfully replicate its seafood restaurant business in China. But it has other dining concepts (eg hotpot, Teochew cuisine, bak kut teh) that can be exported overseas as well, not just in China but the rest of South-east Asia. Gross margins for all its brands run in the 40-60% range, and with scale, Maybank-KE sees room for upside.

Maybank-KE opines that Jumbo deserves a premium to peers for its uniquely-Singapore brand and product and firstmover advantage in China. Maybank-KE’s TP of $0.58 implies a ~40% upside, and values Jumbo at 25x/22x/19x FY16e/17e/18e P/E.

Meanwhile, Market Insight favours Jumbo’s growth profile, and includes the stock in our growth portfolio with an entry price of $0.445

SG Economy

Economy: 4Q15 GDP growth tops expectations; downside risks remain
Based on advanced estimates, the Singapore economy grew 2% y/y in 4Q15 beating estimates for a 1.2% increase as well as 3Q15’s 1.8% growth.

The services (+3.2%) and construction (+2.2%) industry helped to negate declines in the manufacturing (-6%) industry.

The manufacturing industry was primarily weighed down by a decline in the output of electronics, transport engineering, and precision engineering sectors.

Construction’s expansion was aided by public sector construction activities while the services industry was aided by growth in the wholesale & retail trade and finance & insurance sectors.

On a q/q basis, Singapore’s GDP grew 5.7% compared to forecasts for 1% expansion and 3Q15’s revised 1.7% growth.

For the whole of 2015, the Singapore’s GDP grew 2.1% y/y, in line with the government’s forecast of about 2% growth.

Back in Nov, the MTI projected that Singapore’s economy will grow 1-3% on the back of expansion in advanced economies and improvements in most emerging market and developing economies.

Downside risks continue to remain though, with the significant drop in demand in China should ongoing economic reforms falter.

SG Market (04 Jan 16)

Singapore Market: Singapore shares will likely be weighed by the downdraft in Wall Street that ended 2015 with a whimper, as well as continued dismal manufacturing data from China, its fifth consecutive contraction in Dec.

For the week, the US jobs report on Fri will be the most keenly watched indicator for the health of the domestic economy, while the US central bank will be publishing the minutes of its Dec meeting, where it voted to raise interest rates, on Wed.

Regional bourses opened mixed on the first trading day of 2016, with Japan (+0.3%), Korea (-0.3%) and Australia (+0.6%).

From a chart perspective, the STI is trading within a tight range between its immediate support at 2,860 (20-dma) and resistance at 2,920 (50-dma).

Stocks to watch
*Economy: 4Q15 GDP grew 5.7% q/q, beating estimates of a 1% expansion as services (+6.5%) and construction (+7%) sectors help offset a decline in manufacturing (-3.1%). On a y/y basis, GDP grew 2%, ahead of street expectations for a 1.2% increase.

*Banks: Nov total loans grew 1.4% y/y, its slowest since Feb 2010, dragged by weak business loans across most sectors, while consumer loans continued to be weighed by weakness in the property sector and car loans. MKE maintains UW on the sector, with top pick being UOB (Hold, TP $21.00).

*Genting Hong Kong: Exercised a call option to purchase the remaining shares in Petram LIV and Petram LWB, a property lessor and shipyard operator, respectively, for €16.5m (HK$140.9m).

*Second Chance: 1QFY16 net profit surged 48.4% y/y to $2.5m, mainly from fair value gains of $0.7m (1QFY15: -$1.5m). Revenue slipped 7.1% to $8.2m, dragged by apparel (-22.7%) and securities (-15.1%) businesses, but mitigated by its gold business (+8.7%) . Gross margin slid 4.9 ppt to 57.6% from the change in sales mix. NAV/share stood at $0.37.

*Centurion: Scaling down its Penang worker dormitory project to a maximum of 6,102 beds from 12,000 beds. The group entered into a supplemental agreement with the Penang Development Corp to nearly half the project’s land size to 6.6 acres (prev: 10.6 acres), with a revised purchased price of RM10.9m (prev: RM20.8m).

*YuuZoo: Entered into settlement agreements with Infocomm Asia (IAH) in which YuuZoo will now acquire 30% of IAH for US$2.1m. IAH will also repay loans of $6.5m, while YuuZoo will gain access to IAH’s 32m registered users in seven Southeast Asian markets. Separately, Chief Revenue Officer Rio Inaba has stepped down from his role one year following his appointment, to pursue other opportunities.

*Tuan Sing: 44.5% owned Gul Technologies Singapore acquired the remaining 38.6% stake in printed circuit boards manufacturer Gultech (Suzhou) Electronics, for Rmb194m ($42.1m), at 1.24x P/B.

*China New Town: In relation to the development of Yangzhou Airport New Town Project, China New Town will contribute an investment of Rmb100m, which will have a fixed return of 13% per annum over a three year period. Subsequently, the group will be guaranteed an exit through equity interest purchase by the district authorities and is backed by the municipal government.

*Sin Heng Heavy Machinery: Awarded the distributorship from Manitowoc's Grove range of all-terrain cranes for Indonesia. It will also provide after-sales service and parts in the country.

*Linc Energy: Credit Suisse AG disposed 6.5m shares at 12.54¢ apiece via the market on 29 Dec 2015, reducing its shareholding from 9.25% to 8.2%.

*Raffles United: To sell its 50% stake in Kian Ho Guangzhou for a part inventory, part cash deal worth ~$1m.

*Advanced Integrated Manufacturing: To purchase a minimart in Redhill for $0.2m.

*Design Studio: Exclusive distribution agreement with SieMatic Möbelwerke for its range of kitchen products has been terminated, after falling revenue contributions in FY13-14.