Friday, June 1, 2012
City Dev
City Dev: its 54% owned Millennium & Copthorne has signed contracts to manage 11 hotels in Saudi Arabia and 1 five-star hotel in Tsibilisi, Georgia. The 11 Saudi Arabia hotels will have >4k rooms in total (with the largest hotel > 1.5k rooms); 3 hotels will open this year, with the rest slated to open over the next 3 years.
Tourism is expected to stay strong in Mecca, given that Mecca has >2m pilgrims each Haj, and receives ~13m visitors every year. The Georgia hotel is M&C’s first hotel in the Caucasus region of Eastern Europe, and will open by mid-2014 with 220 rooms.
Chairman Kwek Leng Beng remains positive on business and economic opportunities in the Middle East, and expects the region to see “good trade growth in the next five years”.
M&C currently has 10 hotels in the region.
City Dev stock is -0.5% at $9.90.
SembMarine
SembMarine: OCBC upgrades to Buy from Hold, keeping a $5.12 fair value. Note that at current price levels, see value emerging. House says the outlook remains positive, with current WTI oil prices around US$88/bbl still above the US$70-US$75/bbl threshold level for a safe cushion for viable sector investments, with recent comments from offshore drillers reflecting their belief in strong industry fundamentals and interest in more newbuilds.
Expect continued capital expenditure in the sector which takes a long-term view due to strong industry fundamentals and the long lead time required for offshore projects. OCBC says SembMarine's strong outstanding orderbook, at a net $7.4b, with deliveries stretching until 2Q15, offers defensiveness and good earnings visibility amid global economic uncertainty and a lack of clarity on the general corporate earnings outlook. It notes year-to-date orders of $3b are 34% of the house's full-year estimate.
Dukang
Dukang: stock is up 9.5% at $0.23.
Today’s bullish candle (may turn out to be a more positive Marubozu candle if it closes at the day high) could indicate a reversal of the downward trend.
Also positive that RSI and MACD have also hooked up to climb up from oversold levels, with Stochastics poised to do the same.
Traders who decide to “play the bounce” may see price test resistance at $0.25 followed by $0.30. Keep a strict stop loss if prices break below $0.20, or if the key indicators start to tilt back down.
Genting
Genting: Positive divergences forming on indicators with support at $1.45-1.42 region, although share price has yet to turn up. Any retracement will face short-term resistance at $1.56 lvls. MACD is also entering positive territory and rest of indicators are oversold. In the longer-term, counter appears to be trading in a range between $1.80 and $1.42, which makes the support lvl fairly important.
KepCorp
KepCorp: -0.7% at $9.91, broadly in line the STI's 0.9% decline amid a broad-based market selloff despite the company announcing before the market open it landed an around US$560m contract from AP Moller-Maersk drilling arm to build an ultraharsh-environment jackup rig, its third CJ70 design rig for the company.
Analyst note that the contract is already included in his order-win assumptions and won't affect earnings forecasts. But adds, it's all driven by the North Sea and discoveries taking place there. You're going to see more activity taking place over the next year or two. While the latest contract pricing could be slightly higher than the previous two rig orders from Moller-Maersk, which were at around US$1b in total, it's not material. Bid-ask spreads suggest the $9.87 intraday low may not be tested again.
Jardine C&C (technical)
Jardine C&C: technically weak.
While RSI and Stochastics are in oversold territory, there is no evidence of a reversal in the indicators yet, hence the odds favor a continuation of the current downward trend.
The stock continues to make a new recent low in the current session, and is now hovering around a pivotal level. A close below the $41.70 support level could indicate further weakness and a decline toward the next support at $40. Resistance is around the $44 level.
GLP
GLP Maintains O/p with $2.40 TP. House hosted a series of investordialogue sessions with GLP’smgt in the past week for afew UK and US domiciled investors.Questions centred on GLP’s growth
strategy, particularly on its thoughtson capital recycling. DeputyChairman articulated that he intends to run GLPin a more prudent manner comparedto the previous Prologis model, citing
lessons learnt during the last financialcrisis.
Under GLP, he intendsto grow its China platform in a morecalibrated manner by embarking ondevelopment projects only withsubstantial pre-commitments.Development risk is also shared with
JV partners as projects in Japan aretaken on under the private fund level.GLP also reiterated on theattractiveness of Japan, citing itslarge in-house team, its marketleadership and lack of availablemodern facilities as key barriers toentry. It intends to focus on Chinaand Japan in the near- and mid-term.
Investors’ feedback also appears positive so far, as GLP has deliveredoperationally. Its China growth pathis likely to see speed bumps along theway, and believe it is essential for t he group to maintain a nimblebalance sheet. Estimate a healthylook-through net gearing of 0.36x inFY13, backed by strong OCF ofUS$440m. The targeted partnershipswith GLCs (CIC and CPPIB) shouldalso cushion the perceived risks at theprivate fund level. Credit conditionsin Japan work in its favour, allowingcash-on-cash yields of 18%. House believe this segment will continue toanchor its growth in China.
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