Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Mencast
Mencast: Co. announced that it has issued and allotted 2.22m first tranche consideration shares at the issue price of 54.5Sc for the acquisition of Unidive Marine Services. CIMB continues to rate Mencast a BUY with target price of S$0.70.
Rotary Engineering
Rotary Engineering: Co. announced that it has amassed $110m of jobs in 3Q11, however for confidentiality and competitive reasons, Grp is unable to provide a breakdown of the transactions that involve work across different disciplines, including engineering.
CIMB however recommends investors to sell the stock as valuations are seeminly rich in such a negative climate. The counter is trading7.5x CY12 P/E and see de-rating catalysts from weaker-than-expected orders and results.
CIMB however recommends investors to sell the stock as valuations are seeminly rich in such a negative climate. The counter is trading7.5x CY12 P/E and see de-rating catalysts from weaker-than-expected orders and results.
STX OSV
STX OSV: Co. has secured contracts for three diesel electric twin screw trawler vessels (essentially fishing vessels) worth Nok750m from Aker Seafoods, one of Norway's leading producers and exporters of white fish products. Vessels are scheduled for delivery between 2Q13-1Q14.
We note that contract (excluding contracts worth abt Nok 3,000 million for 8 LPG carriers to become effective by abt Nov11) brings Ytd Orderwins to Nok5,031 million, with Orderbook standing at approximately Nok 15,000 million vs 1H11 Rev at 5,936 million, underpinnings earnings visibility till 2014. CIMB maintains O/p Rating with $1.85 TP and DMG maintains Buy but cuts TP to $1.56 from $2.00, while CS has neutral rating with $1.60 TP.
We note that contract (excluding contracts worth abt Nok 3,000 million for 8 LPG carriers to become effective by abt Nov11) brings Ytd Orderwins to Nok5,031 million, with Orderbook standing at approximately Nok 15,000 million vs 1H11 Rev at 5,936 million, underpinnings earnings visibility till 2014. CIMB maintains O/p Rating with $1.85 TP and DMG maintains Buy but cuts TP to $1.56 from $2.00, while CS has neutral rating with $1.60 TP.
NOL
NOL: Aug operating data weak.
Headline freight rate fell 20% YoY and was flat MoM. This is weaker than China Containerised Freight Index (CCFI), which fell 18% YoY but rose 0.8% MoM in Aug. NOL’s volumes grew 8% YoY but were flat MoM. On an absolute basis, NOL’s volume was hovering at record-high levels.
Mgt noted there is no significant increase in its forward cargo booking for the next one month.
Meanwhile, peer AP Moeller-Maersk says it is struggling to raise peak season rates on the Asia-Europe shipping route, as an influx of new vessels leads to a glut in capacity. Notes, its current fleet utilisation at >90% on Asia-Europe routes, matching the global avg, means shipping lines have little incentive to slash capacity. This could spell further downside risk in rates, especially with new vessels arriving later this yr.
BNP also sees a gloomy container shipping outlook, particularly on the Asia-Europe route. Believes liners will find it difficult to raise freight rates in the last month of the peak season as load factor remains low, and sees possibility of another rate cut in the Nov weak season.
The Street has a mix of Buy, Hold and Sell ratings. Recent TP ranges btwn $0,77 – 1.65.
Headline freight rate fell 20% YoY and was flat MoM. This is weaker than China Containerised Freight Index (CCFI), which fell 18% YoY but rose 0.8% MoM in Aug. NOL’s volumes grew 8% YoY but were flat MoM. On an absolute basis, NOL’s volume was hovering at record-high levels.
Mgt noted there is no significant increase in its forward cargo booking for the next one month.
Meanwhile, peer AP Moeller-Maersk says it is struggling to raise peak season rates on the Asia-Europe shipping route, as an influx of new vessels leads to a glut in capacity. Notes, its current fleet utilisation at >90% on Asia-Europe routes, matching the global avg, means shipping lines have little incentive to slash capacity. This could spell further downside risk in rates, especially with new vessels arriving later this yr.
BNP also sees a gloomy container shipping outlook, particularly on the Asia-Europe route. Believes liners will find it difficult to raise freight rates in the last month of the peak season as load factor remains low, and sees possibility of another rate cut in the Nov weak season.
The Street has a mix of Buy, Hold and Sell ratings. Recent TP ranges btwn $0,77 – 1.65.
Singapore
Singapore: likely to open lower in line with regional markets, after US stocks lost ground Monday, and the S&P cut Italy’s debt rating, raising fears of the global impact of continued financial turmoil and economic weakness in the euro zone.
The Nikkei is down 1.5%, and the KOSPI down 1.3% at 8.30am
The ASX 200 is down 0.4% at 8.50am.
NOL may be in focus after posting weaker freight rates in Aug.
STX OSV may see a bounce after reporting shipbuilding contracts worth ~US$132.5m in total.
For the STI, volatility is likely ahead in the recent 2680-2900 trading range.
The Nikkei is down 1.5%, and the KOSPI down 1.3% at 8.30am
The ASX 200 is down 0.4% at 8.50am.
NOL may be in focus after posting weaker freight rates in Aug.
STX OSV may see a bounce after reporting shipbuilding contracts worth ~US$132.5m in total.
For the STI, volatility is likely ahead in the recent 2680-2900 trading range.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Upcoming Events in the Eurozone
Date Event
14 September 2011 EU/IMF returns to Athens for the completion of the fifth review
14 September 2011 Greek Prime Minister to hold a conference call with German
Chancellor Merkel and the President of the French Republic
Sarkozy
14-15 September 2011 The Finnish government discusses 2012 Budget
15 September 2011 EUR 14.5bn government bond redemption in Italy
16-17 September 2011 EU Finance Ministers & Central Bankers meet in Poland
17 September 2011 Moody’s eview period on Italy’s rating ends
18 September 2011 German state election in Berlin
20 September 2011 Netherlands to present 2012 Budget
20 September 2011 EUR 0.8bn coupon payment due in Greece
23 September 2011 EUR 2.0bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
23-25 September 2011 Annual meeting of the World Bank Group and the IMF
30 September 2011 EUR 13.5bn government bond redemption in Italy
29 September 2011 German lawmakers vote on the changes to the EFSF
End-September The fifth review of the Greek programme to be completed
3 October 2011 Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting
4 October 2011 EU finance ministers’ meeting
6 October 2011 ECB rate decision
14 October 2011 EUR 2bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
14-15 October 2011 G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting in Paris
Mid-October PSI deal expected to be completed
17-18 October 2011 EU leaders hold Summit in Brussels
21 October 2011 EUR 1.6bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
22 October 2011 EUR 1.0bn coupon payment due in Greece
31 October 2011 ECB President Mr. Trichet’s term ends
31 October 2011 EUR 14.1bn government bond redemption in Spain
1 November 2011 EUR 15.5bn government bond redemption in Italy
3 November 2011 ECB rate decision
7 November 2011 Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting
8 November 2011 EU finance ministers’ meeting
11 November 2011 EUR 4.5bn government bond redemption in Ireland
11 November 2011 EUR 2.0bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
18 November 2011 EUR 1.3bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
20 November 2011 General elections in Spain
29 November 2011 Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting
30 November 2011 EU finance ministers’ meeting
30 November 2011 Sixth review of the EU/IMF program for Greece
8 December 2011 ECB rate decision
9 December 2011 EU leaders hold Summit in Brussels
15 December 2011 Fourth review of the EU/IMF program for Ireland
15 December 2011 Second review of the EU/IMF program for Portugal
16 December 2011 EUR 2.0bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
12 January 2012 ECB rate decision
22 January 2012 Presidential elections in Finland
1 February 2012 EUR 26bn government bond redemption in Italy
9 February 2012 ECB rate decision
28 February 2012 EUR 1.3bn government bond redemption in Spain
28 February 2012 Seventh review of the EU/IMF program for Greece
1 March 2012 EUR 15bn government bond redemption in Italy
1-2 March 2012 EU leaders hold Summit in Brussels
5 March 2012 EUR 5.6bn government bond redemption in Ireland
8 March 2012 ECB rate decision
15 March 2012 Fifth review of the EU/IMF program for Ireland
15 March 2012 Third review of the EU/IMF program for Portugal
14 September 2011 EU/IMF returns to Athens for the completion of the fifth review
14 September 2011 Greek Prime Minister to hold a conference call with German
Chancellor Merkel and the President of the French Republic
Sarkozy
14-15 September 2011 The Finnish government discusses 2012 Budget
15 September 2011 EUR 14.5bn government bond redemption in Italy
16-17 September 2011 EU Finance Ministers & Central Bankers meet in Poland
17 September 2011 Moody’s eview period on Italy’s rating ends
18 September 2011 German state election in Berlin
20 September 2011 Netherlands to present 2012 Budget
20 September 2011 EUR 0.8bn coupon payment due in Greece
23 September 2011 EUR 2.0bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
23-25 September 2011 Annual meeting of the World Bank Group and the IMF
30 September 2011 EUR 13.5bn government bond redemption in Italy
29 September 2011 German lawmakers vote on the changes to the EFSF
End-September The fifth review of the Greek programme to be completed
3 October 2011 Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting
4 October 2011 EU finance ministers’ meeting
6 October 2011 ECB rate decision
14 October 2011 EUR 2bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
14-15 October 2011 G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting in Paris
Mid-October PSI deal expected to be completed
17-18 October 2011 EU leaders hold Summit in Brussels
21 October 2011 EUR 1.6bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
22 October 2011 EUR 1.0bn coupon payment due in Greece
31 October 2011 ECB President Mr. Trichet’s term ends
31 October 2011 EUR 14.1bn government bond redemption in Spain
1 November 2011 EUR 15.5bn government bond redemption in Italy
3 November 2011 ECB rate decision
7 November 2011 Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting
8 November 2011 EU finance ministers’ meeting
11 November 2011 EUR 4.5bn government bond redemption in Ireland
11 November 2011 EUR 2.0bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
18 November 2011 EUR 1.3bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
20 November 2011 General elections in Spain
29 November 2011 Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting
30 November 2011 EU finance ministers’ meeting
30 November 2011 Sixth review of the EU/IMF program for Greece
8 December 2011 ECB rate decision
9 December 2011 EU leaders hold Summit in Brussels
15 December 2011 Fourth review of the EU/IMF program for Ireland
15 December 2011 Second review of the EU/IMF program for Portugal
16 December 2011 EUR 2.0bn T-Bill redemption in Greece
12 January 2012 ECB rate decision
22 January 2012 Presidential elections in Finland
1 February 2012 EUR 26bn government bond redemption in Italy
9 February 2012 ECB rate decision
28 February 2012 EUR 1.3bn government bond redemption in Spain
28 February 2012 Seventh review of the EU/IMF program for Greece
1 March 2012 EUR 15bn government bond redemption in Italy
1-2 March 2012 EU leaders hold Summit in Brussels
5 March 2012 EUR 5.6bn government bond redemption in Ireland
8 March 2012 ECB rate decision
15 March 2012 Fifth review of the EU/IMF program for Ireland
15 March 2012 Third review of the EU/IMF program for Portugal
HPH Trust
HPH Trust: DBS maintains Buy with TP cut from US$1.05 to US$0.95 with lower FY11/12 DPU estimates of 4.5% and 6.5% respectively. Yantian throughput figures fell 6.9% yoy in Aug 2011 and is down 0.5% yoy YTD. In view of weaker peak season volume growth assumptions in Yantian have been cut. However, though GDP/trade growth is to be sub-par it is not expected to be negative which current valuations seem to imply. Forecasted US figures are at 2.3-2.4% (qoq seasonally adjusted) in 3Q11 and 4Q11, a far cry from recession. Even at lower DPU estimates, trust has attractive yield of 8.5%-9.0%. House notes that in a bear case scenario which is a deeper slowdown, TP is still at US$0.85 offering value at current prices.
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