Wednesday, September 19, 2012
DBS (technical)
DBS, Counter has recently broke below its 20 day EMA, and is currently testing its 50 day EMA at $14.43. Following which a break, could see next support at $14.12. While RSI Appears neutral, Stochastics and ADX does point to a downward trend.
OCBC (techincal)
OCBC: Trading Central notes share price is bouncing back above the 20day and 50day MA. Furthermore, the validation of a bullish flag pattern calls for further gains in the coming days. Adds, RSI is bouncing off a significant horizontal support level at 41. Tips targets at $9.60 and $9.90 in extension, as long as support at $9.11 holds.
OUE
OUE: Grp clarifies that while it has been approached by potential buyers and has offered a potential buyer to conduct preliminary due diligence on Mandarin Orchard, no firm decision has been taken and at this stage it is uncertain if any transaction will be concluded. Shareholders are advised to exercise caution when dealing with the Co's shares.
Trading halt will be lifted at 1.45 p.m
Thai Beverage
Thai Beverage: Religare note that ThaiBev and TCC Assets now look like winners, after the two said they would be voting in favor of Heineken's bid for F&N's holdings in APB. Houseestimates after the APB deal, ThaiBev could make around $2b net-net, a whopping 46% cash return on its investments, helping its balance sheet. TCC now needs to come up with around $8.8b to take over F&N and will receive around $5.4b from the APB sale.
House won't be surprised if several mths later ThaiBev and Heineken come up with another distribution agreement for ThaiBev products. The "worst-case" scenario for the Thai group is to remain majority F&N stakeholders without being able to delist F&N, if the SG co's board rejects its bid. ThaiBev holding 29.99%, TCC about 1% and Kirin owning 14% is "still a messy structure, but ThaiBev and TCC could get control of F&N with ThaiBev focusing on FNH and TCC on property without having to bring S$8.8b.
With Thailand to join the Asean trading link next mth in Oct, Thai retail investors may finally get the opportunity to own Thai Bev -- their own local consumer play. Thai Bev is currently only listed in Singapore.
The potential for a new segment of investor class to support Thai Bev may give the recent momentum more legs to run.
Genting SP
Genting SP: CLSA maintains O/p with $1.49 TP. House had meetings with LVS and Genting who highlighted the high profit margins at the two integrated resorts, reflecting required the returns on combined investment of $15b. Looking ahead the focus of both the govt and two operators remains attracting high spending individuals both from the major Chinese mkt as well as further afield for RWS.
Note that the mass mkt has slowed to single digit growth led by the international
visitor arrivals, while the govt is focussed on reducing marketing to domestic players. However, to maintain the growth in mass market SG will need more hotel rooms, almost double the current 5,500 rooms planned to be open by the end of 2014, Sentosa would boost RWS traffic.
At present the IMA’s have 2 suites with two tables each or just 2% of the 190 VIP tables (562 in total). This is inline with forecast of growing to 6 tables by year end. 2013 has potential to deliver stronger VIP growth for RWS providing firstly, the Beach Villas are popular with high rollers. Secondly, economic conditions and the liquidity of VIP players improves, otherwise a 30% growth in VIP turnover, would materially impact receivables.
With the Japanese government focussed on attempting to double the sales tax from 5% to 10%, it appears to have less resolve to push through the contentious reforms required for casinos in the short term. Thus the main focus for RWS’ development does not appear to be changing imminently. This leaves potential in Vietnam, Korea and moving on the existing Echo holding.
Olam
Olam: Has acquired 100% of Northern Coffee Corp, the largest coffee estate in Zambia for approx US$6.15m.
A further US$40m will be committed as capex and pre-operative expenditure to develop 2k ha of Arabica coffee plantation over the nxt 5 yrs. The estate is expected to yield approx 4.5k MT of Arabica coffee beans by FY2021 at steady-state. The first 300 ha are expected to be planted in FY2013. Co currently trades at P/E 13.9x
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