Tuesday, September 6, 2016

SG Market (06 Sep 16)

SG Market: Singapore market could continue its upswing as oil bounced on a Saudi-Russian pledge to stabilise prices after meeting at the G20 summit and investors dialled back expectations of a Sep rate hike following a disappointing US jobs report.

Regional bourses saw a muted open in Tokyo (flat), Seoul (flat) and Sydney (-0.3%).

From a chart perspective, topside resistance for the STI is at 2,880, with underlying support at 2,800.

Stocks to watch:
*Economy: Nikkei Singapore PMI rose to 52.3 (Jul: 50.7) for a fourth consecutive month, aided by output and new orders from improved domestic demand, but exports fell for a sixth month.

*City Dev: Took a 20% stake in mamahome, a fast-growing Chinese online apartment rental platform with presence in >20 cities in China, for Rmb100m, alongside other investors Shanghai Chongfu (56%) and E-House Capital (24%). The platform reportedly has more than 100,000 listings, with >75% of listings in Tier 1 cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. MKE has a Hold with TP of $9.17.

*Q&M: Maintains its acquisition momentum with completion of $1.3m acquisition of Jurong Point Dental Surgery, which comes with a profit guarantee of the sale amount over an eight-year period. MKE last had a Buy with TP of $1.08.

*BreadTalk: Acquiring the remaining 15% of Megabite (HK) for $1.7m. Megabite owns BreadTalk Concept Hong Kong, Food Republic Guangzhou F&B Management and Food Republic Shenzhen F&B Management.

*Sim Lian: Buyout offer of $1.08/share has been declared unconditional in all respects after the controlling shareholder garnered 90.1% of total share capital. The counter will cease trading at close of odder and the offeror intends to exercise its right of compulsory acquisition. Offer remains open for acceptance until 5.30 pm on 10 Oct.

*Silverlake: Established a Vietnamese subsidiary to provide workflows and networking systems to the insurance industry there.

*Ezion/ Charisma Energy: Both parties entered into a 50/50 JV to venture into the electricity trading business.

*Hyflux: Marking its foray into the consumer business with the upcoming launch of its City Square Mall outlet on 8 Sep, which retails bath equipment that leverages on Hyflux’s special oxygenated water.

*Chiwayland: Established financing partnership with Shanghai Caitong Asset Management (Caitong), in which Caitong will finance the group's property development projects up to a maximum of Rmb55m over an 18-month period, in return for a guaranteed 11% return on its principal.

*Rex Int'l: Management assures that the group's balance sheet remains financially sound, with liquid assets of US$68.5m exceeding total debt of US$60.5m, and supported by tax refunds from the Norwegian government. However, we note that the upstream O&G company bled further in 1H16 with operating cash outflow of US$18m (1H15: US$5.5m) depleting its cash balance to US$36.3m (FY15: US$53.5m).

*AVIC International Maritime: Awarded a €3m contract to provide design services for a ro-pax vessel to be built for Danish company Mols-Linien. Work will be carried out over 12 months.

*Mermaid Maritime: Clarified recent media reports that delivery of its vessel had been delayed to 30 Jun '17 and that it is currently evaluating options. Reports had previously surfaced that it had sold the vessel to Ultra Deep Subsea with delivery in 1Q17.

*Ipco: Profit warning for 1QFy17 amid a decrease in demand for burn-in boards in the semiconductor industry.

Monday, September 5, 2016

Telecoms

Telecoms: Incumbents to feel competitive heat; downgrade to negative*
- MKE is downgrading the telecoms sector to Negative from Neutral in light of heightened competitive risk on the likely entry of a fourth telco.
- M1 – Most at risk, downgraded to Sell from Hold with TP of $2.04 from $2.94
- StarHub – Enterprise to hold the fort, downgraded to Hold from Buy with TP of $3.52 from $4.15
- Singtel – Least affected, although trouble is brewing in India, reiterate Hold but with lower TP of $3.70 from $4.41

SG Market (05 Sep 16)

SG Market: The market could be set for a slight rebound after a soft US job report allayed fears of an interest rate hike later this month.

We remain advocates of consumer, healthcare and defensive names such as Sheng Siong, Best World, mm2, Ascendas REIT and MINT.

Regional markets opened higher in Tokyo (+1.2%), Seoul (+0.9%) and Sydney (+0.8%).

Immediate support for STI is at 2,800, with topside resistance at 2,880.

Stocks to watch:
*CapitaLand: Updated that its Rmb24b ($4.9b) Raffles City Chongqing, Singapore’s largest single development in China, is on track for completion in phases from 2018 onwards.

*Oxley: Entered MOU with Chongqing Liangjiang New Area Administrative Committee to develop a Rmb5b integrated medical hub (Lijia Health City), comprising a general hospital, specialist centres, high-end residences, hotels, service apartments, nursing homes and other-related facilities, on a 533,000 sqm plot in the Lijia CBD of the Chongqing Liangjiang New Area.

*Innovalues: Advised that matters have progressed in relation to a possible buyout but talks are still ongoing. MKE last had a Buy rating on the precision parts maker with TP of $1.15.

*Q&M: Completed the acquisitions of 1) Tooffy for $0.3m, which comes with a five year profit guarantee of $0.2m p.a., and 2) Ho Dental Surgery for $1.7m, with a profit guarantee of $1.2m for 5.5 years. MKE last had a Buy with TP of $1.08.

*Yoma: Acquired the remaining 25% interest in its Balloons over Bagan hot air balloon business in Myanmar via 70% owned Chindwin Holdings for US$1.5m, with intention to restructure and spin-off its tourism assets into a new company.

*Cambridge Industrial Trust: Proposed sale of the remaining leasehold interest in a light industrial building at 2 Ubi View for $10.5m, or a 6% premium to its book value.

*Sunvic: Divesting its stake in loss-making Jiangsu Jurong Petrochemicals to Shenzhen Qianhai Gatway Petrochemical for Rmb388m, and expects to book a gain of Rmb14m.

*Jasper Investments: Reached in-principle understanding with Guangdong Zhuhai City LuYuan Construction Engineering (LuYuan) to project-manage certain parts of the infrastructural projects secured by the Chinese company. In that respect, Jasper has been earmarked for two LuYuan projects in the Pearl River Delta region (marine transportation) and Sanya (reclamation works).

*Delong: Proposed to invest $8.2m and $11.6m in Shunwei Fund and CEG Fund, respectively, as part of its diversification efforts. Shunwei is a $204.2m PE fund which invests in internet, technology, media and telecoms industry in China, while CEG is a US100m PE fund that invests in seed and early stage internet-related and IT companies in the US.

*China Minzhong: Requested for an extension to the trading halt until 5pm on 6 Sep, as it is currently finalising terms for the proposed takeover by PT Indofood Sukses Makmur at $1.20/share.

*Excelpoint: Private placement of 15m shares (12.8% of enlarged share capital) at $0.525 (34.6% premium to last close) to an investment company to raise net proceeds of $7.8m intended for strategic M&As and the development of new technology, applications and R&D.

*Swiber: Interim judicial managers updated that as at 1 Sep, total sum of claims received amounted US$227m.

*Creative: Filed infringement lawsuit against ARM regarding four of its patents.

*Debao Property: Removed from SGX Watch-List after meeting exit criteria.

*Nico Steel: Placed on the SGX Watch-list with effect from 5 Sep 2016.

Friday, September 2, 2016

Telco

Three bidders, MyRepublic, AirYotta, and TPG Telecom, have formally thrown their names in the hat to become Singapore's fourth telco.

The trio have expressed their interest (EOI) to bid for a chunk of available spectrum that will be on auction this quarter.

Of the three players, only MyRepublic needs no introduction, being an upstart ISP and broadband network operator started in 2011 by former StarHub executive and currently has a subscriber base of 55,000. MyRepublic was previously reported to have faced funding issues for the auction.

AirYotta is an unknown entity that is fronted by former executives of OMGTel, which was backed by Consistel. The latter did not enter the race after a recent misstep when it was fined by the IDA for providing misleading information and committing to an unauthorised network asset sale.

A surprising third player is TPG Telecom, Australia's second largest Internet Service Provider (ISP) and largest Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO). TPG is well known in Australia as a very competitive ISP and mobile service provider.

The IDA will now assess the three submissions within the next 20 working days based on their business plans, technical capabilities and whether they are "fit-and-proper persons". An auction of the frequency is expected to be carried out in Oct.

Notably, the street is gearing up for the prospect of a fourth telco in view of the three potential spectrum bidders, which includes a seasoned player (TPG).

Of the three, Maybank KE opines that the industry could be negatively affected if either MyRepublic or TPG Telecom becomes the fourth telco. This would stem from the two players' low-cost, disruptor approach, which could lead to intense competition and ARPU compression.

The house's last calls are Singtel (Hold, TP: $4.41), M1 (Hold, $2.94) and StarHub (Buy, TP: $4.15).

Land transport

Land transport: Grab-Trans-cab partnership may wrestle drivers away from competitors
- Grab entered exclusive partnership with Trans-cab, Spore 2nd largest taxi operator
- All 7,000 drivers under Trans-cab will only use Grab as its external online passenger booking platform
- Grab to offer app training, and special smartphone and telecom deals to drivers
- Arrangement can help fence off competition for drivers from Uber, Comfort, and SMRT
- This may concern Comfort and SMRT as both encountered deteriorating taxi operating metrics
- Maybank KE is negative on Land Transport sector. Comfort (Hold, TP: $2.63), SMRT (Accept Temasek's offer)

SG Market (02 Sep 16)

SG Market: Cautious trading is expected as investors hold off fresh positions in risk assets ahead of the US job report this evening, which could give policy makers the justification to raise rates as soon as this month.

Regional markets opened lower in Tokyo (-0.2%), Seoul (-0.1%) and Sydney (-0.5%).

Immediate support for STI is at 2,800, with topside resistance at 2,880.

Stocks to watch:
*STI: In its Sep quarterly review, Jardine Matheson will be added to the index, while Sembcorp Marine will be removed. Reserve list comprises Mapletree Commercial Trust, Suntec REIT, Keppel REIT, Mapletree Industrial Trust and Sing Post.

*Telecom: Three bidders have emerged for Singapore's fourth telco licence, namely MyRepublic, AirYotta and TPG Telecom. MyRepublic's appearance is no suprise, AirYotta is an unknown entity fronted by ex OMGTel (Consistel) executives, while TPG is a seasoned Australian player. IDA will review their EOIs within the next 20 working days, which could lead to increased industry competition and ARPU compression. MKE's latest calls are Singtel (Hold, TP: $4.41), M1 (Hold, TP: $2.94), and StarHub (Buy, TP: $4.15).

*Property: MAS has finetuned the TDSR refinancing rule to give property borrowers more flexibility in refinancing their home loans. With immediate effect, loans for all homes bought before the TDSR framework can be refinanced above the 60% debt-to-income threshold (30% for HDB and ECs) as long as the borrower commits to repay at least 3% of the outstanding balance over a maximum of three years. MKE sees minimal impact to the market from this revision.

*CapitaLand: Launched move-in-ready houses at Victoria Park Villas in District 10. The 106 semi-detached houses and three bungalows will feature built-in smart home systems and occupy a 403,000 sf site with prices ranging between $1,008 - $1,056 psf.

*Frasers Centrepoint: Its hospitality arm disclosed that Fraser Residence Putrajaya will be opened in 2019, adding to its growing Malaysia serviced residence portfolio across eight properties with >2,400 units.

*First Resources: FFB harvest declined 10% y/y in Jul to 207,588 tonnes, on lower yield of 1.3 tonnes/ha (Jul '15: 1.6 tonnes/ha), while CPO production shrank 15.3% to 48,398 tonnes, and extraction rate dipped 0.9ppt to 21.8

*Infinio Group: Proposed issue of $20m 1% equity-linked redeemable convertible notes due 2019 to Advance Opportunities Fund 1. Proceeds will be used to for investments (70%) and working capital (30%).

*Best World: 1-for-4 bonus issue will go ex on 7 Sep.

Thursday, September 1, 2016

SG Market (01 Sep 16)

SG Market: Singapore shares could face further selling pressure following the sharp drop in crude price and upbeat US economic data adding more cause for the Fed to lift interest rates.

Regional markets opened lower in Tokyo (-0.1%), Seoul (-0.7%) and Sydney (-0.2%).

Immediate support for STI now seen at 2,800, with topside resistance at 2,880.

Stocks to watch:
*Banks: Jul loans rose 1.1% m/m (Jun: -0.4%) to $597b, the strongest since Jun '15. The surprise jump was mainly lifted by financial institutions (+11.9%) stemming from the hunt for yield, as well as general commerce, which cushioned the slowdown in construction lending.

*SingPost: Sold its 60% stake in Japan Self Storage for $2.4m and booked a $1.6m disposal loss, which confirms the impairment risk of the massive $579m goodwill in its balance sheet. MKE's last rating was a contrarian Sell with TP of $1.29.

*Sino Grandness. Updated that the recent 2.25m sale of shares by substantial shareholder Soleado Holdings that reduced its stake to 14.01% from 14.35% was due to Soleado's internal portfolio management. The Thai investment company has reassured that Sino Grandness remains one of its core strategic investments.

*mm2 Asia: Proposed 1-into-2 stock split to make each share more affordable to investors.

*Vallianz: Received letters of demand from Swiber's interim judicial managers for payments totalling US$63.5m. The group has declined payment arguing that the parties have substantial commercial dealing and a a practice of netting off receivables and payables. For reference, Vallianz had receivables/payables amounting US$65.9m/US$67.3m owing from/to Swiber as at Jun '16.

*SIIC Environment: Acquiring 60% in Ranhill Water Technologies for Rmb273.9m (1.3x P/B). Ranhill provides services for the industrial wastewater treatment market in China and its current concession contracts has a total design capacity of 260,000 tpd.

*Roxy Pacific: Acquired a freehold residential site, Harbour View Gardens along Pasir Panjang Road for $33.3m or ~$772 psf ppr.

*Darco Water: 60% owned unit acquired a four-storey office building in Hubei, China for $2.4m. The 1,493 sqm leasehold property (45 years) will be used for expansion.

*Otto Marine: Secured shipbuilding contracts worth US$8m, for harbour tugs from an Indonesian state-owned company. Delivery is expected in 4Q17.

*Trendlines: Commenced ADR trading on the US OTCQX under the symbol TRNLY. As there is no new issuance of shares, the ADR trading does not dilute existing shareholders.

*MMP Resources: Issuing 185.7m new shares to Singapore-based investment holding company. Vessel Gate Investment, at $0.007/share, or 75% premium on the last close. Net proceeds of $1.2m will be used to fund the potential acquisition of a Japanese ski operator.

*TSH: Following completion of recent disposals of its operating businesses, TSH has become a cash shell with cash of $32.7m ($0.136/share).

*Secura: Formed strategic alliance with M1 to be its cyber advisory and consultancy partner.

*Katrina: CFO Lee Li Eng has resigned with immediate effect to pursue personal interests.

*Aspial Corp: Repurchased $4m of the $80m notes issued at 4.5% in 2014.