Thursday, March 3, 2016

Strategy

Strategy: "Liang hui" to spark interest in targeted s-chips
The upcoming Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and National People's Congress (NPC) meetings, termed as "liang hui", may bring some focus into specific s-chips.

The CPPCC, the country's top political advisory body, commences its annual meeting today through to 14 Mar, which sets out to contribute ideas to China's five-year development plan from 2016-2020.

Meanwhile, NPC will commence from 5 Mar to 16 Mar. This is the Chinese Parliament, where Premier Li Keqiang will present the government's growth target and budget at the opening address.

"Liang hui" is one of the key events on China's calendar, as investors look for clues on portfolio positioning to ride on policy tailwinds, especially amid a period of slowing growth and volatile markets.

Market watchers expect addresses to the increasingly desperate environmental issues, which may spark investor sentiment for the water treatment stocks such as China Everbright Water, SIIC Environment and Citic Envirotech.

Additionally, railway parts manufacturer Midas could also see expectations for a return of new orders, underpinned by the government's Rmb2.8t investment into the railway sector over the next five years.

China Everbright Water and Midas are on the Market Insight Growth Portfolio

SG Market (03 Mar 16)

Singapore shares are likely to consolidate nearly 5% gains in the past five days on China and Europe stimulus hopes and improving oil prices as investors reassess if risk-reward justifies further purchases.

Regional bourses marched forward another day, with Tokyo (+0.6%), Seoul (+0.2%) and Sydney (+0.8%) opening stronger.

From a chart perspective, the STI could pull back to try and to close the 2,680 gap from overbought position. Overhead resistance for the index sits at 2,740.

Stocks to watch:
*Strategy: The CPPCC meeting commences today till 14 Mar. Counters which may come into focus from policy tailwinds include water treatment stocks China Everbright Water, SIIC Environment and Citic Envirotech, as well as railway parts manufacturer Midas.

*Market: SGX has placed 41 Mainboard-listed companies on Watch-list for failing to meet the minimum trading price rule.

*Keppel Corp: Investing US$93.9m in a 40% owned JV, which will develop a 14.6ha mixed-used waterfront development in Ho Chi Minh City, comprising residential apartments as well as an 86-storey integrated mixed-use tower complex.

*China Everbright Water: Partnering Zhangqiu municipal government, via a 95% owned JV, to operate two wastewater treatment plants of which a combined capacity will reach 90,000m3/day. Total investment is Rmb160m with concession of 30 years.

*Frasers Centrepoint: Acquired additional 142m shares in Thai-listed Golden Land Property Development at 6.50bt/share in the open market, increasing its stake to 35.6% (+6.1ppt).

*Sim Lian Group: Announced a $755 psf average price for its Wandervale Executive Condominium, located near the Choa Chu Kang MRT station. During the 11-day e-application period, subscription rate was 1.47x.

*Chiwayland: Appointed a fund manager to manage its collateralized debt investment program, which pays an expected 9.8%-11% per annum to third-party investors. Funds raised to-date is ~Rmb130.9m, and the group intends to use raised funds for its development projects.

*Asia Fashion: To acquire 70% stake in media and entertainment investment company Boya Lianli (Beijing) for $11.2m, or ~26x trailing P/E. In relation, UOB Kay Hian was appointed as a placement agent to raise up net proceeds up to $19.2m via an issue of 62.5m new shares (54.2% enlarged share capital) at $0.32 apiece.

*Europtronic: Received notification from SGX to delist after not meeting the requirements to exit the Watch-List. Trading in the counter will cease after 1 Apr and will remain suspended until completion of an exit offer. An exit offer proposal is to be notified to SGX no later than one month after 2 Mar.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Sing Post

Sing Post: (S$1.45) Issued legal notice to Sias
SingPost has issued a legal notice to shareholder activist group Sias, in relation to its involvement in sharing a defamatory anonymous letter it received with other parties.

This is likely to cause a continued overhang for the counter, which has fallen ~12% year to date and 25% since the beginning of 2015.

To recap briefly, SingPost is in the midst of a special audit to investigate an interested party transaction conducted in 2014, after finding out that independent director Keith Tay Ah Kee’s vested interests in Stirling Coleman Capital, the arranger for the acquisition of freight forwarding company FS Mackenzie, was not disclosed.

Until questions surrounding SingPost’s corporate governance are adequately answered, share price will likely remain in an overhang. As a preemptive and prudent move, the group might also write down some of the investments it has made in the past.

As a gauge, based on SingPost's historical average yield of 5.2%, a price floor at $1.31 is derived for SingPost, 10% below the current price.

Bloomberg consensus has 5 Buy, 4 Hold and 0 Sell ratings on the counter with average TP of $1.82.

SG Market (02 Mar 16)

Singapore shares are likely to see positive spillover form the strong rally in Wall Street overnight, with encouraging US economic data, China and ECB stimulus hopes, and firmer crude prices renewing risk appetite.

Regional bourses surged, with Tokyo (+2.5%), Seoul (+1.4%) and Sydney (+1.3%) markedly performing in the open.

From a chart perspective, STI is may test the near-term resistance at 2,740, while immediate support is at 2,680 (50-dma).

Stocks to watch:
*Macro: FY15 was a year of weaker earnings (-22.7%) based on a sample of 433 listcos. Notable drags were impairments from rigbuilders Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine, provisions by banks, and impairments by property developers.

*Sembcorp Marine: One of its customer Noble Corp reported that a newbuild jackup rig, currently in final stages of construction, is damaged after a shipyard crane boom collapsed near the rig. The potential impact on SMM is if it needs bear any damages if the rig cannot be delayed on time and also the additional cost to repair the damages.

*SingPost: Issued legal notice to SIAS, to ascertain whether the shareholder activist group had shared an anonymous shareholder letter with other parties. The letter is deemed defamatory.

*Otto Marine: Secured contract worth up to A$94.8m, to charter OSVs to a renowned international E&P company, for FPSO infield support in a gas field in Australia.

*KS Energy: Renewed contract with Belayim Petroleum for its jack-up rig to continue drilling in Egypt. The contract, worth US$6m, is expected to last till Jul ‘16

*Jason: Was awarded 10 contracts worth an aggregate $7.2m to-date, for the supply and installation of flooring.

*Sing Post: Held topping out ceremony for its regional e-commerce logistic hub, a three storey 553,000sf integrated facility, which has two warehousing floors, 150 loading bays, an office block, and fully automated end-to-end parcel sorting facility.

*China Fishery: Fitch Ratings downgraded the group’s issuer default rating to “restricted default” from “C”, citing the group’s non-payment of a scheduled coupon which was due 30 Jan ’16, even after a 30-day grace period.

*SIA: Receiving its first of 11 A350s to be delivered this year. The airline has 67 A350s on order, of which seven are the new A350-900ULR for its direct flights to the US beginning 2018.

*Blue Sky Power Holdings: Expects FY15 to return to black, due to gains from disposal of interest subsidiaries, and increased gas sales. Results to be announced before the end of Mar '16.

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Thai Bev

Thai Bev: 4Q results showed evidence of an inflection in beer market share and profitability.
Marketing for the NAB segment is likely to taper off, and spirits remains stable, supporting a 10% EPS CAGR for 2015-17e. Valuation looks attractive vs. peers.
MS raised to OW with TP of $0.78.

SG Market (01 Mar 16)

Trading may be buoyed by the the window dressing and China’s reserve requirement cut yesterday but key Chinese manufacturing data due this morning could keep sentiment in check.

Regional bourses opened mixed in Tokyo (-0.2%), Seoul (-0.2%) and Sydney (+0.3%).

From a chart perspective, STI is hemmed between immediate resistance at 2,670 and downside support at 2,600.

Stocks to watch:
*Golden Agri: FY15 results beat with 4Q15 core net profit of US$50.9m (+10.3% y/y), despite revenue drop to US$1.55b (-14.8% y/y) from lower CPO prices. EBITDA margin expanded to 9% (+1.6ppt) on improved business environment for oilseeds. Headline net loss of US$88.4m (4Q14: US$21.9m loss) was dragged by higher fair value loss on biological assets of $197.7m (4Q14: $133.8m) and lower FX gain of $7.2m (4Q14: $34m). First and final DPS of 0.502¢ (FY14: 0.585¢). NAV/share at US$0.68.

*Q&M: FY15 slight miss although net profit jumped 33% to $11.4m, on revenue of $124m (+23.6%) attributable to higher income from existing and new dental outlets in Singapore, increased sales from equipment and supplies, as well as full year contribution from manufacturer Aidite acquired in Aug '14. Adjusted EBIT margin expanded to 14.5% (+2.2ppt). Final DPS of 0.42¢ brought FY15 total DPS to 0.84¢ (FY14: 0.73¢).

*UMS: 4Q14 net profit soared 171% y/y to $10m, pushing FY15 net profit to $34.3m (+38%). For the quarter, revenue slipped to $21.9m (-1%) as higher consumables component sales was more than offset by reduced semiconductor integrated system sales and lower component sales. Gross margin jumped to 76% (+22ppt) on a favourable FX rate and shift towards more profitable components, while bottom line was supported by lower opex (-9%). Proposed final and special DPS of 3¢; FY15 total DPS of 6¢ maintained. NAV/share at $0.453.

*Ezion: Swung to 4Q15 net loss of US$63.5m (4Q14 net profit: US$83.7m), largely from impairment losses (US$81.1m). Revenue fell 19% y/y to US$84.8m from project delays, while gross margin fell to 23.8% (-26.8ppt). NAV/share at $0.787.

*Wheelock Properties: 4Q15 net loss narrowed to $0.9m (4Q14: $103.1m loss), buoyed by the absence of a provision (4Q14: $75m) and reduced fair value loss on investment properties of $29.3m (4Q14: -$50.7m). Revenue of $108.3 (+303% y/y) stemmed from increased units sales at its residential developments. NAV/share at $2.54.

*Yanlord: 4Q15 net profit increased 13% y/y to Rmb1.22b, as revenue climbed 37% to Rmb10.23b attributed to the increased gfa delivered. Gross margin fell 2.8ppt to 25.3% on a shift in product mix, while bottom line rose at a slower clip on higher selling expenses (+52%) and widened loss at JV. NAV/share at Rmb10.44. Higher first and final DPS of 1.52¢ (FY14:1.3¢).

*Ying Li: 4Q15 net profit tumbled 40.5% y/y to Rmb116.3m, although revenue rose to Rmb306.9m (+26%) on firmer property sales (+32%) from San Ya Wan Phase 2 project, while rental income (+1.1%) inched up. Gross margin narrowed 13ppt to 26% on lower margin projects, while bottom line was weighed by increased finance cost. Net gearing ballooned to 0.75x from 0.41x in FY14. NAV/share at Rmb1.97.

*Midas: FY15 results beat, as net profit notched up 1.5% y/y to Rmb57.2m despite revenue jump to Rmb1.51b (+14.7%), attributable to increased aluminium alloy extruded product sales. Gross margin edged higher to 26.9% (+3 bps), while bottom line was weighed by higher selling & distribution cost (+21%) and increased taxes(+614.3%) on lower deferred tax income. First and final DPS of 0.25¢; FY15 total DPS maintained at 0.5¢. NAV/share at Rmb2.50.

*Hi-P: Swung to 4Q15 net loss of $48m, while revenue climbed 18.9% to $373.9m, driven by increase in orders for both new and existing customers. Gross margin 2.2ppt to 5.2% due to the a provisioning for inventory for Yota Devices. Bottom line also dragged by provisioning for receivables, and allowance for non-cancellable purchase commitments, both in relation to Yota. NAV/share at 68.19¢. FY15 DPS of 0.6¢ (FY14:1¢).

*Japfa: FY15 core net profit rose 24% to $64m, while revenue fell 5% to US$2.79b, mainly due to the weaker IDR dampening animal protein and consumer food contributions, partially offset by animal protein segment in Vietnam and dairy operations in China. Bottom line was boosted by lower finance costs. NAV/share at US$0.38. FY15 DPS of 0.5¢ (FY14: nil).

*Yoma: Appointed as Volkswagen’s official importer and distributor for a range of passenger cars and SUVs in Myanmar.

*Hiap Hoe: Swung to 4Q15 net profit of $5.8m, while revenue increased 27.5% y/y to $24.7m, largely due to $2.3m revenue recognition for development properties, versus a $2.6m contract rescission last year. Bottom line also boosted by lower SG&A expenses. NAV/share at $1.43. FY15 DPS of 1¢ maintained.

*QT Vascular: FY15 net loss widened to US$53.1m (+55.2% y/y) on provisions of US$23.4m on legal reparations. Revenue slipped to US$12.4m (-5.5%) as the group sold few catheter units (-10.3%) as it was re-negotiating a distribution agreement with Cordis. Gross margin improted to 32.7% (+7.3 ppt) on production efficiency gains. Bottom line was squeezed by higher sales and marketing (+18.6%), and R&D (+25.3%) expenses. NAV/share at -US$0.02.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Singtel

Singtel: Philippines telco peer PLDT drops 10.5% today following the release of a lacklustre set of 4Q15 results. Some market watchers may fear that the disappointing set of results may affect Singtel's Philippines' associate 47.2%-owned Globe, but we believe it is a company-specific issue at PLDT.

Details below:
- PLDT swung into 4Q15 net loss of 3.27b peso (US$69m) in 4Q15, mainly from asset impairment, FX losses and higher financing costs.
- At 4Q15, Globe contributed just 4% to Singtel's underlying net profit.
- At the top line, 4Q revenue from PLDT's mobile segment saw strong adoption of data services, pretty much in line with what Singtel saw.