Qingmei: profit warning.
Mgt expects profitability to be affected and report lower yoy sales for 3QFY12, mainly due to, i) slowdown in domestic mkt demand for its pdts due to intensified competition and consolidation of downstream sports shoes manufacturers and distributors, and ii) customers becoming more prudent under current mkt conditions.
Nevertheless, the Group expects to remain profitable for FYJun12.
The stock trades at 1.4x trailing P/E, 6.7x fwd P/E, likely reflecting an expected earnings decline.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
CapitaMall Trust
CapitaMall Trust: Announced 1Q12 results which were in-line with expectations. NPI at 108.3m, +2.5% YoY, while distributable income at 76.6m, +4.6% YoY, although DPU was effectively flat at 2.3c, translating to an annualized yield of 5.04%.
Operations saw shopper traffic declined marginally by 1.9%, although tenant sales actually rose 3.9%. Occupancy rates remained strong at >99% for the malls that are not undergoing asset enhancements.
Looking ahead mgt note that asset enhancement works at Iluma are on track to complete by July 2012, and the mall will be rebranded as Bugis+ to better represent its synergy with Bugis Junction. Over 80% of the NLA has already been committed, with Japanese fast-fashion retailer UNIQLO set to open its largest duplex store at close to 20,000 sq ft.
We note that overall fundamentals remain strong, with a leverage ratio of 38.3% vs retail reit average of 25.8% and an interest coverage of 3.4x and average term to maturity of 3 yrs. At current price, grp trades at 0.92x P/B and an annualized yield of 5.04% vs Retail reit average of 0.8x P/B and 6.6% yield.
Operations saw shopper traffic declined marginally by 1.9%, although tenant sales actually rose 3.9%. Occupancy rates remained strong at >99% for the malls that are not undergoing asset enhancements.
Looking ahead mgt note that asset enhancement works at Iluma are on track to complete by July 2012, and the mall will be rebranded as Bugis+ to better represent its synergy with Bugis Junction. Over 80% of the NLA has already been committed, with Japanese fast-fashion retailer UNIQLO set to open its largest duplex store at close to 20,000 sq ft.
We note that overall fundamentals remain strong, with a leverage ratio of 38.3% vs retail reit average of 25.8% and an interest coverage of 3.4x and average term to maturity of 3 yrs. At current price, grp trades at 0.92x P/B and an annualized yield of 5.04% vs Retail reit average of 0.8x P/B and 6.6% yield.
A-Reit
A-Reit: FYMar12 results inline, with stable underlying trends.
Full yr DPU of 13.6cts, +2.5% yoy, translating to 6.7% yield. 4Q DPU was 3.5cts, +7% yoy after adjusting for the rights issue.
NPI was +8.5% yoy, boosted mainly by new acq but impacted by higher expenses. NPI growth in the business park segment was the strongest (+30% yoy) driven by unvmts while the hi-tech segment was flat due to higher expenses.
Occupancy for the group dipped to 94.3% (96.0% in 3QFY12) due to low takeup rates (25%) at FoodAxis @ Senoko post redevelopment.
However, on a same-store basis, occupancy rates remained stable.
Positive rental renewal rates (5%-16%) were achieved across all segments.
The group has 13.8% of its leases due for expiry in FY13 and mgt expects rental renewals to remain in the positive territory as average passing rentals on its expiring leases are trending below market rents.
A-Reit’s portfolio grew by 17% yoy to $6.2b largely due to new investments. Mgt expects the pace of acquisitions to slow in FY13. Gearing for the group stands at 36.6% with average debt cost at 3.0%. Book value stands at $1.88/unit.
UOBK rates at Sell with raised TP $1.90 from $1.85.
BOA-ML has an Underperform rating, but raises TP to $2.05 from $2.
Morgan Stanley keeps at Equal weight.
JPM keeps at neutral with TP $2.20.
StanChart upgrades to Inline from underperform, raises TP to $2.07 from $1.93 on less negative rent outlook.
Deutsche keeps at Buy with TP $2.31.
Full yr DPU of 13.6cts, +2.5% yoy, translating to 6.7% yield. 4Q DPU was 3.5cts, +7% yoy after adjusting for the rights issue.
NPI was +8.5% yoy, boosted mainly by new acq but impacted by higher expenses. NPI growth in the business park segment was the strongest (+30% yoy) driven by unvmts while the hi-tech segment was flat due to higher expenses.
Occupancy for the group dipped to 94.3% (96.0% in 3QFY12) due to low takeup rates (25%) at FoodAxis @ Senoko post redevelopment.
However, on a same-store basis, occupancy rates remained stable.
Positive rental renewal rates (5%-16%) were achieved across all segments.
The group has 13.8% of its leases due for expiry in FY13 and mgt expects rental renewals to remain in the positive territory as average passing rentals on its expiring leases are trending below market rents.
A-Reit’s portfolio grew by 17% yoy to $6.2b largely due to new investments. Mgt expects the pace of acquisitions to slow in FY13. Gearing for the group stands at 36.6% with average debt cost at 3.0%. Book value stands at $1.88/unit.
UOBK rates at Sell with raised TP $1.90 from $1.85.
BOA-ML has an Underperform rating, but raises TP to $2.05 from $2.
Morgan Stanley keeps at Equal weight.
JPM keeps at neutral with TP $2.20.
StanChart upgrades to Inline from underperform, raises TP to $2.07 from $1.93 on less negative rent outlook.
Deutsche keeps at Buy with TP $2.31.
SGX
SGX: 3QFY12 broadly inline with consensus.
Net profit came in at $77.8m, +16% yoy, +19% qoq. This was boosted by higher securities avg daily turnover (ADT) of $1.5b, as well as lack of merger expenses.
Securities related revenue rose by 22% qoq, but was still lower by 12% yoy.
Nevertheless, non-securities related revenues continued to come in strong, +10% yoy and +13% qoq, attributed to better interest and other income from the derivatives business.
On outlook. Goldman notes ADT has come down to $1.3b/ 1.2b in Mar/ Apr-TD, from the peak in Feb at $1.8b.
JPM expects consensus to reduce FY13 earnings and volume forecasts by ~5%, in line with recent trends. Says current street estimates imply $1.5b ADT for FY13 vs YTD volumes of $1.37b.
On High Frequency Trading, SGX indicated that added regulatory scrutiny combined with cautious feedback from current mkt participants will results in a more measured approach to the roll out. SGX also acknowledged that existing fee structures are unlikely to be appropriate for HFT activity. The co guided for a 12mth timeframe for introduction.
Other new initiatives in the pipeline include RMB pdts and Asean Link.
Goldman keeps at Neutral but raises TP to $7.20 from $7.
Deutsche keeps at Hold with TP $6.90.
JPM keeps at Neutral, lowers TP to $7.80 from $7.90.
BOA-ML maintains Underperform with TP $6.53.
Net profit came in at $77.8m, +16% yoy, +19% qoq. This was boosted by higher securities avg daily turnover (ADT) of $1.5b, as well as lack of merger expenses.
Securities related revenue rose by 22% qoq, but was still lower by 12% yoy.
Nevertheless, non-securities related revenues continued to come in strong, +10% yoy and +13% qoq, attributed to better interest and other income from the derivatives business.
On outlook. Goldman notes ADT has come down to $1.3b/ 1.2b in Mar/ Apr-TD, from the peak in Feb at $1.8b.
JPM expects consensus to reduce FY13 earnings and volume forecasts by ~5%, in line with recent trends. Says current street estimates imply $1.5b ADT for FY13 vs YTD volumes of $1.37b.
On High Frequency Trading, SGX indicated that added regulatory scrutiny combined with cautious feedback from current mkt participants will results in a more measured approach to the roll out. SGX also acknowledged that existing fee structures are unlikely to be appropriate for HFT activity. The co guided for a 12mth timeframe for introduction.
Other new initiatives in the pipeline include RMB pdts and Asean Link.
Goldman keeps at Neutral but raises TP to $7.20 from $7.
Deutsche keeps at Hold with TP $6.90.
JPM keeps at Neutral, lowers TP to $7.80 from $7.90.
BOA-ML maintains Underperform with TP $6.53.
SG Market
SG Market: S’pore shares are expected to swing back up on the back of the solid gains on Wall Street as investors cheer the upbeat IMF forecast for global economic growth, the good clutch of earnings reports plus relief over the successful debt auction by fiscally strapped Spain. Expect the STI to reclaim the 3000 mark and head towards the triple top resistance at 3030 with 2970 providing the underlying support.
On the corporate front, SGX, A-Reit and CMT results were broadly in line with estimates. Genting S’pore may see some disappointment after its $500m 2nd perpetual securities offer did not trigger the $200m overallotment option. Qingmei is also in the news after giving a profit warning for its 3Q results.
On the corporate front, SGX, A-Reit and CMT results were broadly in line with estimates. Genting S’pore may see some disappointment after its $500m 2nd perpetual securities offer did not trigger the $200m overallotment option. Qingmei is also in the news after giving a profit warning for its 3Q results.
SG Market
SG Market: S’pore shares are expected to swing back up on the back of the solid gains on Wall Street as investors cheer the upbeat IMF forecast for global economic growth, the good clutch of earnings reports plus relief over the successful debt auction by fiscally strapped Spain. Expect the STI to reclaim the 3000 mark and head towards the triple top resistance at 3030 with 2970 providing the underlying support.
On the corporate front, SGX, A-Reit and CMT results were broadly in line with estimates. Genting S’pore may see some disappointment after its $500m 2nd perpetual securities offer did not trigger the $200m overallotment option. Qingmei is also in the news after giving a profit warning for its 3Q results.
On the corporate front, SGX, A-Reit and CMT results were broadly in line with estimates. Genting S’pore may see some disappointment after its $500m 2nd perpetual securities offer did not trigger the $200m overallotment option. Qingmei is also in the news after giving a profit warning for its 3Q results.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Olam
Olam: Macquarie says "it's a good time to revisit" Olam . While it doesn't expect Olam to reach its net profit target of US$1 b by FY16, due to margin shortfalls, it forecasts a powerful growth trajectory as new investments contribute, estimating 24% CAGR ex-biological gains through FY16.
Says it's not only intrinsically compelling, but also best among the agri players under its coverage. Cuts TP to $2.80 from $3.10 after lowering FY12-13 EPS, forecasts an average 15% on recent disappointing results.
Expects a 4th successive quarter of flat growth to be reported for fiscal 3Q12 in May, as profit in the Industrial Raw Materials division remains subdued, before seeing a rebound in fiscal 4Q12. From FY13 onwards, sees very strong earnings growth as Olam's new investments start to contribute more meaningfully.
Keeps an Outperform call, tipping it as its top Singapore-listed agribusiness pick.
The stock is up 0.4% at $2.32.
Says it's not only intrinsically compelling, but also best among the agri players under its coverage. Cuts TP to $2.80 from $3.10 after lowering FY12-13 EPS, forecasts an average 15% on recent disappointing results.
Expects a 4th successive quarter of flat growth to be reported for fiscal 3Q12 in May, as profit in the Industrial Raw Materials division remains subdued, before seeing a rebound in fiscal 4Q12. From FY13 onwards, sees very strong earnings growth as Olam's new investments start to contribute more meaningfully.
Keeps an Outperform call, tipping it as its top Singapore-listed agribusiness pick.
The stock is up 0.4% at $2.32.
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